Sagamihara vs Renofa Yamaguchi: prediction and stats
J3 LeagueRegular Season - 35Kick-off on May 3, 2027 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Sagamihara Gion Stadium, Sagamihara
The Footlab model makes Sagamihara the favourite at 49%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Renofa Yamaguchi. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sagamihara vs Renofa Yamaguchi?
A very open match: only 53 Elo points separate Sagamihara (1,770) and Renofa Yamaguchi (1,717).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sagamihara have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Renofa Yamaguchi have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Kanazawa(home) | 2-1 | J3 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Thespakusatsu Gunma(away) | 4-1 | J3 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Roasso Kumamoto(home) | 0-0 | J3 League |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Roasso Kumamoto(home) | 3-0 | J2/J3 League |
| May 30, 2026 | Fujieda MYFC(home) | 4-3 | J2/J3 League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Nara Club(away) | 1-3 | J3 League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Kagoshima United(away) | 1-2 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FC Ryukyu(home) | 1-0 | J3 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Parceiro Nagano(away) | 0-1 | J3 League |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Yokohama FC(away) | 1-2 | J2/J3 League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Sagamihara win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Renofa Yamaguchi win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2021 | Sagamihara 2-0 Renofa Yamaguchi | J2 League |
| May 15, 2021 | Renofa Yamaguchi 1-0 Sagamihara | J2 League |
Last archived meeting: Sagamihara vs Renofa Yamaguchi on Sep 19, 2021
How many goals should we expect?
Sagamihara score 1.8 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Renofa Yamaguchi score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sagamihara | 1.8 | 1.5 | 6 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Renofa Yamaguchi | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sagamihara sit 3rd in J3 League (7 points from 3 matches) and Renofa Yamaguchi sit 13th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Sagamihara | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 7 |
| 13 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sagamihara vs Renofa Yamaguchi?
- The Footlab model makes Sagamihara the favourite at 49%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Renofa Yamaguchi.
- Where and when is Sagamihara vs Renofa Yamaguchi played?
- Sagamihara vs Renofa Yamaguchi is played on May 3, 2027 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Sagamihara Gion Stadium, in the J3 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.