Tochigi SC vs Kagoshima United: prediction and stats
J3 LeagueRegular Season - 35Kick-off on May 3, 2027 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Kanseki Stadium, Utsunomiya
The Footlab model makes Kagoshima United the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Tochigi SC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tochigi SC vs Kagoshima United?
A very open match: only 85 Elo points separate Tochigi SC (1,729) and Kagoshima United (1,814).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tochigi SC have 3 wins, 7 draws and 5 defeats; Kagoshima United have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Kawasaki Frontale(away) | 1-3 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kitakyushu(home) | 2-2 | J3 League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Urayasu(home) | 2-0 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Roasso Kumamoto(away) | 0-0 | J3 League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Kanazawa(home) | 3-2 | J3 League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Albirex Niigata(away) | 4-0 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | FC Gifu(home) | 0-0 | J3 League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Renofa Yamaguchi(home) | 2-1 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Nara Club(away) | 3-1 | J3 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Thespakusatsu Gunma(home) | 1-0 | J3 League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Tochigi SC win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Kagoshima United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2025 | Tochigi SC 2-0 Kagoshima United | J3 League |
| Jul 5, 2025 | Kagoshima United 1-0 Tochigi SC | J3 League |
| Sep 22, 2024 | Tochigi SC 2-1 Kagoshima United | J2 League |
| Apr 21, 2024 | Kagoshima United 2-1 Tochigi SC | J2 League |
| Sep 22, 2019 | Tochigi SC 3-1 Kagoshima United | J2 League |
| Jun 22, 2019 | Kagoshima United 2-0 Tochigi SC | J2 League |
Last archived meeting: Tochigi SC vs Kagoshima United on Nov 9, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Tochigi SC score 1.0 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Kagoshima United score 1.5 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tochigi SC | 1.0 | 1.2 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Kagoshima United | 1.5 | 0.7 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tochigi SC sit 8th in J3 League (5 points from 3 matches) and Kagoshima United sit 4th (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Kagoshima United | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 8 | Tochigi SC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tochigi SC vs Kagoshima United?
- The Footlab model makes Kagoshima United the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Tochigi SC.
- Where and when is Tochigi SC vs Kagoshima United played?
- Tochigi SC vs Kagoshima United is played on May 3, 2027 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Kanseki Stadium, in the J3 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.