San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake: prediction and stats
Major League SoccerRegular Season - 36Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)PayPal Park, San Jose, California
The Footlab model makes San Jose Earthquakes the favourite at 48%, against 23% for a draw and 29% for Real Salt Lake. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake?
A very open match: only 38 Elo points separate San Jose Earthquakes (1,744) and Real Salt Lake (1,782).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, San Jose Earthquakes have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Real Salt Lake have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Minnesota United FC(home) | 1-5 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Los Angeles Galaxy(away) | 0-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 16, 2026 | St. Louis City(home) | 1-3 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 1, 2026 | FC Cincinnati(away) | 2-4 | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Los Angeles Galaxy(home) | 1-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Leon(away) | 0-3 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Orlando City SC(away) | 1-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 20, 2026 | FC Dallas(home) | 3-4 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Minnesota United FC(home) | 1-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 12, 2026 | FC Juarez(home) | 3-0 | Leagues Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 San Jose Earthquakes win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Real Salt Lake win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 27, 2025 | Real Salt Lake 2-1 San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer |
| Feb 23, 2025 | San Jose Earthquakes 4-0 Real Salt Lake | Major League Soccer |
| Oct 6, 2024 | San Jose Earthquakes 0-1 Real Salt Lake | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 25, 2024 | Real Salt Lake 0-2 San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer |
| Sep 17, 2023 | San Jose Earthquakes 2-1 Real Salt Lake | Major League Soccer |
| Apr 23, 2023 | Real Salt Lake 3-1 San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer |
Last archived meeting: Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes on Jul 27, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
San Jose Earthquakes score 1.7 and concede 2.3 goals per match over their last 15; Real Salt Lake score 1.8 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose Earthquakes | 1.7 | 2.3 | 0 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
| Real Salt Lake | 1.8 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
San Jose Earthquakes sit 4th in Major League Soccer (33 points from 21 matches) and Real Salt Lake sit 8th (28 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 21 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 39 | 33 | 33 |
| 8 | Real Salt Lake | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 34 | 32 | 28 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake?
- The Footlab model makes San Jose Earthquakes the favourite at 48%, against 23% for a draw and 29% for Real Salt Lake.
- Where and when is San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake played?
- San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake is played on October 31, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at PayPal Park, in the Major League Soccer.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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