Santa Cruz vs El Palmar: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Group 13 - 6Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Santa Cruz the favourite at 53%, against 28% for a draw and 20% for El Palmar. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Santa Cruz vs El Palmar?
Santa Cruz starts as the favourite with a 120-point Elo edge (1,760 vs 1,640).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Santa Cruz have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; El Palmar have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Cartagena LU II(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| May 2, 2026 | Real Murcia II(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Yeclano II(away) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | SFC Minerva(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Atlético Pulpileño(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | SFC Minerva(away) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| May 3, 2026 | Atlético Pulpileño(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Águilas II(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | UCAM Murcia II(home) | 0-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Mazarrón FC(away) | 1-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Santa Cruz win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 El Palmar win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | El Palmar 1-3 Santa Cruz | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Santa Cruz 1-2 El Palmar | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
Last archived meeting: El Palmar vs Santa Cruz on Mar 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Santa Cruz score 1.0 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; El Palmar score 0.8 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Cruz | 1.0 | 1.1 | 6 | 4/15 | 6/15 |
| El Palmar | 0.8 | 1.7 | 5 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Santa Cruz sit 8th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 (51 points from 34 matches) and El Palmar sit 14th (32 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Santa Cruz | 34 | 15 | 6 | 13 | 37 | 34 | 51 |
| 14 | El Palmar | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 27 | 48 | 32 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Santa Cruz vs El Palmar?
- The Footlab model makes Santa Cruz the favourite at 53%, against 28% for a draw and 20% for El Palmar.
- Where and when is Santa Cruz vs El Palmar played?
- Santa Cruz vs El Palmar is played on October 11, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC), in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 13.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 11, 2026Los GarresvsOlímpico Totana
- Oct 11, 2026SFC MinervavsÁguilas II
- Oct 11, 2026UCAM Murcia IIvsMazarrón FC
- Oct 11, 2026Bala AzulvsAtlético Pulpileño
- Oct 11, 2026Unión MolinensevsAlcantarilla
- Oct 11, 2026AlgarvsSan Javier
- Oct 11, 2026SantomeravsBalsicas Atlético
- Oct 11, 2026Bullas DeportivovsCartagena LU II