Sodupe vs Pasaia KE: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 17Kick-off on January 10, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Campo Lorenzo Hurtado de Saratxo, Sodupe
The Footlab model makes Sodupe the favourite at 59%, against 24% for a draw and 17% for Pasaia KE. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sodupe vs Pasaia KE?
A very open match: only 34 Elo points separate Sodupe (1,660) and Pasaia KE (1,627).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sodupe have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; Pasaia KE have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2021 | JD Somorrostro(home) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Jun 5, 2021 | Urgatzi(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 29, 2021 | Tolosa(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 22, 2021 | Aurrerá Ondarroa(away) | 0-5 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 15, 2021 | Balmaseda(home) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Eibar III(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2026 | Añorga(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Durango(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Aretxabaleta(home) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Zamudio(away) | 0-7 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Sodupe win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Pasaia KE win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2021 | Pasaia KE 1-1 Sodupe | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Jan 3, 2021 | Sodupe 0-1 Pasaia KE | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Dec 15, 2019 | Sodupe 0-2 Pasaia KE | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
How many goals should we expect?
Sodupe score 1.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Pasaia KE score 0.8 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sodupe | 1.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Pasaia KE | 0.8 | 1.7 | 5 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Pasaia KE | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 26 | 46 | 36 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sodupe vs Pasaia KE?
- The Footlab model makes Sodupe the favourite at 59%, against 24% for a draw and 17% for Pasaia KE.
- Where and when is Sodupe vs Pasaia KE played?
- Sodupe vs Pasaia KE is played on January 10, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Campo Lorenzo Hurtado de Saratxo, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.