Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate: prediction and stats
Liga Profesional ArgentinaClausura - 11Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Eva Perón de Junín, Junín, Provincia de Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes River Plate the favourite at 43%, against 29% for a draw and 29% for Sarmiento Junin. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate?
River Plate starts as the favourite with a 127-point Elo edge (1,928 vs 1,801).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sarmiento Junin have 8 wins, 0 draws and 7 defeats; River Plate have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Estudiantes L.P.(home) | 2-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Huracan(home) | 2-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Atletico Tucuman(away) | 2-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Independ. Rivadavia(home) | 2-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Banfield(away) | 2-3 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Velez Sarsfield(home) | 2-2 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Santa Fe(away) | 0-0 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Argentinos JRS(home) | 2-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Tigre(away) | 0-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Rosario Central(home) | 0-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Sarmiento Junin win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 River Plate win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | River Plate 2-0 Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Oct 12, 2025 | River Plate 0-1 Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Sarmiento Junin 1-1 River Plate | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 28, 2024 | River Plate 1-0 Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Mar 20, 2023 | Sarmiento Junin 0-2 River Plate | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 31, 2022 | River Plate 1-2 Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina |
Last archived meeting: River Plate vs Sarmiento Junin on Mar 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sarmiento Junin score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; River Plate score 1.1 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarmiento Junin | 1.3 | 1.4 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| River Plate | 1.1 | 1.0 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sarmiento Junin sit 11th in Liga Profesional Argentina (19 points from 16 matches) and River Plate sit 2nd (29 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sarmiento Junin | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 8 | 12 |
| 2 | River Plate | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 12 | 29 |
| 11 | Sarmiento Junin | 16 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 20 | 19 |
| 13 | River Plate | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate?
- The Footlab model makes River Plate the favourite at 43%, against 29% for a draw and 29% for Sarmiento Junin.
- Where and when is Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate played?
- Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate is played on October 4, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Eva Perón de Junín, in the Liga Profesional Argentina.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 4, 2026Velez SarsfieldvsPlatense
- Oct 4, 2026Defensa Y JusticiavsSan Lorenzo
- Oct 4, 2026HuracanvsAldosivi
- Oct 4, 2026BanfieldvsRosario Central
- Oct 4, 2026Estudiantes L.P.vsGimnasia M.
- Oct 4, 2026Boca JuniorsvsUnion Santa Fe
- Oct 4, 2026IndependientevsInstituto Cordoba
- Oct 4, 2026Atletico TucumanvsBarracas Central