Match

Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate: prediction and stats

Liga Profesional ArgentinaClausura - 11Kick-off on October 14, 2026 at 10:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Eva Perón de Junín, Junín, Provincia de Buenos Aires

Sarmiento JuninRiver Plate

The Footlab AI model makes River Plate the favourite at 57%, against 24% for a draw and 19% for Sarmiento Junin. The most likely score is 1-1. If River Plate wins, the most likely score is 0-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate?

River Plate starts as the favourite with a 129-point Elo edge (1,987 vs 1,858).

19%24%57%
Sarmiento Junin winDrawRiver Plate win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Sarmiento Junin

4-4-2
  1. 27J. Marabel
  2. 24J. Herrera
  1. 16Mauricio Leonel Martínez
  2. 21J. Mavilla
  3. 15C. Zabala
  4. 19J. Contrera
  1. 2J. Insaurralde
  2. 44R. Orihuela
  3. 8S. Salle
  4. 77N. Pasquini
  1. 12T. Ayala

River Plate

4-2-3-1
  1. 9S. Driussi
  1. 10Á. Correa
  2. 50T. Andrada
  3. 23T. Almada
  4. 26T. Galván
  5. 15F. Vera
  1. 30N. Otamendi
  2. 28L. Martínez
  3. 29G. Montiel
  4. 21M. Acuña
  1. 41S. Beltrán

Computed on October 8, 2026 at 03:41 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sarmiento Junin have 6 wins, 1 draw and 8 defeats; River Plate have 5, 3 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Sarmiento Junin
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Sep 19, 2026Racing Club(away)1-3Liga Profesional Argentina
Sep 13, 2026Belgrano Cordoba(home)1-1Liga Profesional Argentina
Sep 4, 2026Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto(away)2-0Liga Profesional Argentina
Aug 28, 2026Union Santa Fe(away)1-4Liga Profesional Argentina
Aug 23, 2026Estudiantes L.P.(home)2-0Liga Profesional Argentina
River Plate
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Sep 19, 2026Huracan(home)1-2Liga Profesional Argentina
Sep 12, 2026Atletico Tucuman(away)2-1Liga Profesional Argentina
Sep 6, 2026Independ. Rivadavia(home)3-1Liga Profesional Argentina
Aug 30, 2026Banfield(away)3-2Liga Profesional Argentina
Aug 27, 2026Santa Fe(home)1-1CONMEBOL Sudamericana

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Sarmiento Junin wins, 1 draw, 3 River Plate wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Mar 15, 2026River Plate 2-0 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
Oct 12, 2025River Plate 0-1 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
Apr 5, 2025Sarmiento Junin 1-1 River PlateLiga Profesional Argentina
Jul 28, 2024River Plate 1-0 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
Mar 20, 2023Sarmiento Junin 0-2 River PlateLiga Profesional Argentina
Jul 31, 2022River Plate 1-2 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina

Last archived meeting: River Plate vs Sarmiento Junin on Mar 15, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Sarmiento Junin score 1.3 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; River Plate score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Sarmiento Junin1.31.749/159/15
River Plate1.31.338/158/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Sarmiento Junin sit 7th in Liga Profesional Argentina (16 points from 10 matches) and River Plate sit 9th (13 points from 10 matches).

2026 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
7Sarmiento Junin10514171616
9River Plate10415131213

A question about Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate?
The Footlab AI model makes River Plate the favourite at 57%, against 24% for a draw and 19% for Sarmiento Junin.
Where and when is Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate played?
Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate is played on October 14, 2026 at 10:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Eva Perón de Junín, in the Liga Profesional Argentina.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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