Sarriana vs Estradense: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 18Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal De Ribela, Sarria
The Footlab AI model makes Sarriana the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Estradense. The most likely score is 1-1. If Sarriana wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,456 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sarriana vs Estradense?
A very open match: only 29 Elo points separate Sarriana (1,841) and Estradense (1,812).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Sarriana vs Estradense
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Sarriana
Not enough data to predict the Sarriana lineup.
Estradense
Not enough data to predict the Estradense lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 08:04 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sarriana have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Estradense have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Arenteiro(home) | 3-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Somozas(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Celta de Vigo III(home) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Alondras(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Viveiro(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Villalbés(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Boiro(home) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Celtiga(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Coruña(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Atlético Arteixo(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Sarriana wins, 0 draws, 1 Estradense win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | Estradense 1-3 Sarriana | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Jun 7, 2025 | Estradense 0-2 Sarriana | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 1, 2025 | Sarriana 2-0 Estradense | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Sarriana 3-2 Estradense | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 20, 2024 | Estradense 1-2 Sarriana | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Feb 25, 2024 | Sarriana 1-2 Estradense | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
Last archived meeting: Estradense vs Sarriana on Sep 6, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sarriana score 1.6 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Estradense score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarriana | 1.6 | 1.3 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Estradense | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sarriana sit 8th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 (9 points from 5 matches) and Estradense sit 6th (10 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Estradense | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| 8 | Sarriana | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 9 |
A question about Sarriana vs Estradense?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sarriana vs Estradense?
- The Footlab AI model makes Sarriana the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Estradense.
- Where and when is Sarriana vs Estradense played?
- Sarriana vs Estradense is played on January 17, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal De Ribela, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.