SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig: prediction and stats
BundesligaRegular Season - 11Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC)Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg im Breisgau
The Footlab model makes SC Freiburg the favourite at 44%, against 24% for a draw and 33% for RB Leipzig. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?
A very open match: only 16 Elo points separate SC Freiburg (2,195) and RB Leipzig (2,211).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, SC Freiburg have 9 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats; RB Leipzig have 10, 0 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Fortuna Düsseldorf(away) | 5-1 | DFB Pokal |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Motherwell(away) | 3-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Crystal Palace(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Strasbourg(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Derby(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Eintracht Trier(away) | 6-0 | DFB Pokal |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bayern München(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Leeds(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Verl(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | FC Ingolstadt 04(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 SC Freiburg win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 RB Leipzig win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | SC Freiburg 4-1 RB Leipzig | Bundesliga |
| Jan 14, 2026 | RB Leipzig 2-0 SC Freiburg | Bundesliga |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SC Freiburg 0-0 RB Leipzig | Bundesliga |
| Oct 26, 2024 | RB Leipzig 3-1 SC Freiburg | Bundesliga |
| Apr 6, 2024 | SC Freiburg 1-4 RB Leipzig | Bundesliga |
| Nov 12, 2023 | RB Leipzig 3-1 SC Freiburg | Bundesliga |
Last archived meeting: SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig on May 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
SC Freiburg score 2.2 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; RB Leipzig score 2.2 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg | 2.2 | 1.5 | 2 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
| RB Leipzig | 2.2 | 1.4 | 5 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
SC Freiburg sit 7th in Bundesliga (47 points from 34 matches) and RB Leipzig sit 3rd (65 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 20 | 5 | 9 | 66 | 47 | 65 |
| 7 | SC Freiburg | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 51 | 57 | 47 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?
- The Footlab model makes SC Freiburg the favourite at 44%, against 24% for a draw and 33% for RB Leipzig.
- Where and when is SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig played?
- SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig is played on November 28, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at Europa-Park Stadion, in the Bundesliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Nov 28, 2026Werder BremenvsBorussia Mönchengladbach
- Nov 28, 2026FSV Mainz 05vsUnion Berlin
- Nov 28, 2026Borussia DortmundvsBayer Leverkusen
- Nov 28, 20261899 HoffenheimvsFC Augsburg
- Nov 28, 2026VfB StuttgartvsEintracht Frankfurt
- Nov 28, 2026Hamburger SVvsBayern München
- Nov 28, 2026SC Paderborn 07vsFC Schalke 04
- Nov 28, 20261. FC KölnvsSV Elversberg