Where and when is FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin played?

FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin is played on November 28, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at MEWA ARENA, in the Bundesliga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 71% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 11Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC)MEWA ARENA, Mainz

FSV Mainz 05

Union Berlin

The Footlab model makes FSV Mainz 05 the favourite at 61%, against 20% for a draw and 20% for Union Berlin. The most likely score is 2-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin?

FSV Mainz 05 starts as the favourite with a 124-point Elo edge (2,158 vs 2,034).

FSV Mainz 05 win61 %

Draw20 %

Union Berlin win20 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FSV Mainz 05 have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Union Berlin have 5, 4 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

FSV Mainz 05
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Krieschow(away)	9-0	DFB Pokal
Aug 15, 2026	Bournemouth(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Paris FC(home)	4-0	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Udinese(away)	3-3	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 31, 2026	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai(home)	1-0	Friendlies Clubs

Union Berlin
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Eintracht Braunschweig(away)	4-2	DFB Pokal
Aug 15, 2026	Ipswich(home)	2-4	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 9, 2026	Aris(home)	3-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 2, 2026	Cagliari(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Dynamo Dresden(away)	1-2	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 0 FSV Mainz 05 win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 Union Berlin win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
May 10, 2026	FSV Mainz 05 1-3 Union Berlin	Bundesliga
Jan 10, 2026	Union Berlin 2-2 FSV Mainz 05	Bundesliga
Jan 19, 2025	Union Berlin 2-1 FSV Mainz 05	Bundesliga
Aug 24, 2024	FSV Mainz 05 1-1 Union Berlin	Bundesliga
Feb 7, 2024	FSV Mainz 05 1-1 Union Berlin	Bundesliga
Aug 20, 2023	Union Berlin 4-1 FSV Mainz 05	Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin on May 10, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

FSV Mainz 05 score 3.0 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Union Berlin score 2.5 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 71% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
FSV Mainz 05	3.0	1.3	6	7/15	11/15
Union Berlin	2.5	1.9	1	13/15	12/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

FSV Mainz 05 sit 10th in Bundesliga (40 points from 34 matches) and Union Berlin sit 11th (39 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
10	FSV Mainz 05	34	10	10	14	44	53	40
11	Union Berlin	34	10	9	15	44	58	39

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin?: The Footlab model makes FSV Mainz 05 the favourite at 61%, against 20% for a draw and 20% for Union Berlin.
Where and when is FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin played?: FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin is played on November 28, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at MEWA ARENA, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 71% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.