Match

FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 11Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC)MEWA ARENA, Mainz

FSV Mainz 05Union Berlin

The Footlab AI model makes FSV Mainz 05 the favourite at 69%, against 17% for a draw and 14% for Union Berlin. The most likely score is 2-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,904 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 21, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin?

FSV Mainz 05 starts as the favourite with a 139-point Elo edge (2,202 vs 2,063).

69%17%14%
FSV Mainz 05 winDrawUnion Berlin win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

FSV Mainz 05

3-5-2
  1. 9P. Tietz
  2. 23S. Becker
  1. 10N. Amiri
  2. 19A. Caci
  3. 2P. Mwene
  4. 6K. Sano
  5. 7Lee Jae-Sung
  1. 4S. Posch
  2. 48K. Potulski
  3. 3F. Gruber
  1. 1A. Schwolow

Union Berlin

4-2-3-1
  1. 6A. Kemlein
  1. 8R. Khedira
  2. 20M. Aebischer
  3. 13A. Schäfer
  4. 30K. Imeri
  5. 11Jeong Woo-Yeong
  1. 15T. Rothe
  2. 2F. Uduokhai
  3. 19J. Haberer
  4. 4Z. Van Den Bosch
  1. 1F. Rønnow

Computed on October 21, 2026 at 06:03 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FSV Mainz 05 have 11 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats; Union Berlin have 3, 5 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

FSV Mainz 05
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 17, 2026FC Schalke 04(away)1-0Bundesliga
Oct 10, 2026Bayer Leverkusen(home)3-4Bundesliga
Oct 3, 2026Waldhof Mannheim(away)3-0Friendlies Clubs
Sep 19, 2026Borussia Mönchengladbach(away)4-3Bundesliga
Sep 12, 2026Eintracht Frankfurt(home)1-3Bundesliga
Union Berlin
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 17, 2026Borussia Dortmund(home)0-0Bundesliga
Oct 10, 2026SV Elversberg(home)1-0Bundesliga
Sep 18, 2026Bayern München(away)0-7Bundesliga
Sep 11, 2026FC Schalke 04(home)1-3Bundesliga
Sep 5, 2026Bayer Leverkusen(away)0-4Bundesliga

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 0 FSV Mainz 05 wins, 3 draws, 3 Union Berlin wins.

DateScoreCompetition
May 10, 2026FSV Mainz 05 1-3 Union BerlinBundesliga
Jan 10, 2026Union Berlin 2-2 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
Jan 19, 2025Union Berlin 2-1 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
Aug 24, 2024FSV Mainz 05 1-1 Union BerlinBundesliga
Feb 7, 2024FSV Mainz 05 1-1 Union BerlinBundesliga
Aug 20, 2023Union Berlin 4-1 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin on May 10, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

FSV Mainz 05 score 3.5 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Union Berlin score 1.3 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 74% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
FSV Mainz 053.51.096/1512/15
Union Berlin1.32.3210/1510/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

FSV Mainz 05 sit 5th in Bundesliga (10 points from 6 matches) and Union Berlin sit 17th (5 points from 6 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
5FSV Mainz 056312141010
17Union Berlin61235175

A question about FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin?
The Footlab AI model makes FSV Mainz 05 the favourite at 69%, against 17% for a draw and 14% for Union Berlin.
Where and when is FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin played?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin is played on November 28, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at MEWA ARENA, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 74% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin

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