Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 12Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Ticha, Varna
The Footlab AI model makes Cherno More Varna the favourite at 55%, against 26% for a draw and 19% for Septemvri Sofia. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 2,937 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 21, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia?
Cherno More Varna starts as the favourite with a 121-point Elo edge (1,732 vs 1,611).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Cherno More Varna
4-2-3-1- 10Celso Sidney
- 11M. Achi
- 99I. Bounaas
- 24David Teles
- 71V. Panayotov
- 29B. Beyhan
- 37V. Kerchev
- 50E. Tombak
- 5L. Squadrone
- 93G. Ventsislavov
- 31D. Hristov
Septemvri Sofia
4-2-3-1- 29F. Herard
- 5Y. Baurenski
- 6Pedro Ferreira
- 8B. Penchev
- 33G. Ivanov
- 13K. Önaşçı
- 4M. Hristov
- 26V. Ozornwafor
- 15P. Gospodinov
- 3Sebastian Wade
- 12V. Ivanov
Computed on October 21, 2026 at 08:57 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cherno More Varna have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Septemvri Sofia have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv(home) | 0-1 | Pro Cup |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Marek(away) | 3-0 | Cup |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Levski Sofia(home) | 0-2 | First League |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Ludogorets(away) | 0-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Arda Kardzhali(away) | 1-1 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa(away) | 1-2 | Cup |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Dunav Ruse(home) | 2-3 | First League |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv(home) | 0-3 | First League |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Ludogorets(away) | 1-2 | First League |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Botev Vratsa(home) | 2-3 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Cherno More Varna wins, 2 draws, 0 Septemvri Sofia wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia 0-3 Cherno More Varna | First League |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Cherno More Varna 1-1 Septemvri Sofia | First League |
| Nov 29, 2024 | Septemvri Sofia 1-2 Cherno More Varna | First League |
| Jul 29, 2024 | Cherno More Varna 2-0 Septemvri Sofia | First League |
| Mar 17, 2023 | Cherno More Varna 3-0 Septemvri Sofia | First League |
| Sep 5, 2022 | Septemvri Sofia 0-0 Cherno More Varna | First League |
Last archived meeting: Septemvri Sofia vs Cherno More Varna on Mar 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Cherno More Varna score 1.0 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Septemvri Sofia score 1.1 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cherno More Varna | 1.0 | 1.9 | 2 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Septemvri Sofia | 1.1 | 1.8 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cherno More Varna sit 14th in First League (6 points from 11 matches) and Septemvri Sofia sit 13th (8 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Septemvri Sofia | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 21 | 8 |
| 14 | Cherno More Varna | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 22 | 6 |
A question about Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia?
- The Footlab AI model makes Cherno More Varna the favourite at 55%, against 26% for a draw and 19% for Septemvri Sofia.
- Where and when is Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia played?
- Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia is played on October 24, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Ticha, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.