Shelbourne vs Derry City: prediction and stats
Premier DivisionRegular Season - 31Kick-off on September 11, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Tolka Park, Dublin
The Footlab model makes Shelbourne the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Derry City. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Shelbourne vs Derry City?
A very open match: only 20 Elo points separate Shelbourne (1,680) and Derry City (1,660).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Shelbourne have 3 wins, 7 draws and 5 defeats; Derry City have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 13, 2026 | Ajax(home) | 2-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | St Patrick's Athl.(home) | 1-2 | Premier Division |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Ajax(away) | 1-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Waterford(away) | 0-1 | Premier Division |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Kalju Nomme(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Bohemians(away) | 3-5 | Premier Division |
| Aug 14, 2026 | UCD(away) | 2-1 | FAI Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Sligo Rovers(home) | 2-0 | Premier Division |
| Aug 2, 2026 | St Patrick's Athl.(away) | 1-1 | Premier Division |
| Jul 30, 2026 | HNK Rijeka(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Shelbourne win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Derry City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 25, 2026 | Derry City 0-0 Shelbourne | Premier Division |
| Apr 17, 2026 | Shelbourne 1-2 Derry City | Premier Division |
| Mar 13, 2026 | Derry City 1-2 Shelbourne | Premier Division |
| Sep 19, 2025 | Derry City 1-1 Shelbourne | Premier Division |
| Jun 20, 2025 | Shelbourne 0-1 Derry City | Premier Division |
| May 2, 2025 | Derry City 2-0 Shelbourne | Premier Division |
Last archived meeting: Derry City vs Shelbourne on May 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Shelbourne score 1.5 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Derry City score 1.7 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shelbourne | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
| Derry City | 1.7 | 1.6 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Shelbourne sit 5th in Premier Division (34 points from 26 matches) and Derry City sit 6th (33 points from 28 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shelbourne | 26 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 36 | 38 | 34 |
| 5 | Shelbourne | 21 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 31 | 29 | 30 |
| 6 | Derry City | 28 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 38 | 37 | 33 |
| 6 | Derry City | 22 | 5 | 10 | 7 | 27 | 26 | 25 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Shelbourne vs Derry City?
- The Footlab model makes Shelbourne the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Derry City.
- Where and when is Shelbourne vs Derry City played?
- Shelbourne vs Derry City is played on September 11, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Tolka Park, in the Premier Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.