St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers: prediction and stats
Premier DivisionRegular Season - 31Kick-off on September 11, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Richmond Park, Dublin
The Footlab model makes St Patrick's Athl. the favourite at 48%, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Shamrock Rovers. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers?
A very open match: only 23 Elo points separate St Patrick's Athl. (1,750) and Shamrock Rovers (1,773).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, St Patrick's Athl. have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Shamrock Rovers have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Drogheda United(away) | 2-0 | Premier Division |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Shamrock Rovers(home) | 3-2 | FAI Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Shelbourne(away) | 2-1 | Premier Division |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Derry City(home) | 1-1 | Premier Division |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Dundalk(home) | 1-1 | Premier Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | KuPS(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | St Patrick's Athl.(away) | 2-3 | FAI Cup |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë(away) | 1-5 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Dundalk(home) | 3-2 | Premier Division |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë(home) | 3-1 | UEFA Europa League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 St Patrick's Athl. win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Shamrock Rovers win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | St Patrick's Athl. 3-2 Shamrock Rovers | FAI Cup |
| May 29, 2026 | Shamrock Rovers 1-0 St Patrick's Athl. | Premier Division |
| Apr 10, 2026 | St Patrick's Athl. 0-1 Shamrock Rovers | Premier Division |
| Feb 20, 2026 | Shamrock Rovers 2-0 St Patrick's Athl. | Premier Division |
| Oct 17, 2025 | St Patrick's Athl. 1-0 Shamrock Rovers | Premier Division |
| May 19, 2025 | Shamrock Rovers 4-0 St Patrick's Athl. | Premier Division |
Last archived meeting: St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers on Aug 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
St Patrick's Athl. score 1.5 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Shamrock Rovers score 1.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Patrick's Athl. | 1.5 | 0.9 | 5 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
| Shamrock Rovers | 1.9 | 1.5 | 2 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
St Patrick's Athl. sit 2nd in Premier Division (50 points from 28 matches) and Shamrock Rovers sit 1st (54 points from 27 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shamrock Rovers | 27 | 16 | 6 | 5 | 43 | 24 | 54 |
| 1 | Shamrock Rovers | 22 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 34 | 19 | 43 |
| 2 | St Patrick's Athl. | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 45 | 23 | 50 |
| 2 | St Patrick's Athl. | 21 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 35 | 17 | 38 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers?
- The Footlab model makes St Patrick's Athl. the favourite at 48%, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Shamrock Rovers.
- Where and when is St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers played?
- St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers is played on September 11, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Richmond Park, in the Premier Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.