Waterford vs Dundalk: prediction and stats
Premier DivisionRegular Season - 31Kick-off on September 11, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Waterford Regional Sports Centre, Waterford
The Footlab model makes Dundalk the favourite at 41%, against 25% for a draw and 34% for Waterford. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Waterford vs Dundalk?
A very open match: only 7 Elo points separate Waterford (1,592) and Dundalk (1,599).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Waterford have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Dundalk have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Sligo Rovers(away) | 0-0 | Premier Division |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Athlone Town(home) | 2-1 | FAI Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Bohemians(home) | 3-1 | Premier Division |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Shelbourne(home) | 1-0 | Premier Division |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Galway United(away) | 0-0 | Premier Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Galway United(home) | 1-2 | Premier Division |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Castlebar Celtic(home) | 8-0 | FAI Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Shamrock Rovers(away) | 2-3 | Premier Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Sligo Rovers(home) | 1-1 | Premier Division |
| Jul 24, 2026 | St Patrick's Athl.(away) | 1-1 | Premier Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Waterford win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Dundalk win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 26, 2026 | Dundalk 2-3 Waterford | Premier Division |
| May 4, 2026 | Waterford 3-3 Dundalk | Premier Division |
| Mar 13, 2026 | Dundalk 5-0 Waterford | Premier Division |
| Sep 13, 2024 | Waterford 2-1 Dundalk | Premier Division |
| Jun 28, 2024 | Dundalk 0-2 Waterford | Premier Division |
| May 10, 2024 | Waterford 4-1 Dundalk | Premier Division |
How many goals should we expect?
Waterford score 1.9 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Dundalk score 1.9 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waterford | 1.9 | 1.2 | 4 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Dundalk | 1.9 | 1.4 | 3 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Waterford sit 8th in Premier Division (29 points from 28 matches) and Dundalk sit 4th (37 points from 28 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Dundalk | 21 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 34 | 29 | 35 |
| 4 | Dundalk | 28 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 43 | 43 | 37 |
| 8 | Waterford | 28 | 6 | 11 | 11 | 37 | 48 | 29 |
| 10 | Waterford | 21 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 25 | 42 | 14 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Waterford vs Dundalk?
- The Footlab model makes Dundalk the favourite at 41%, against 25% for a draw and 34% for Waterford.
- Where and when is Waterford vs Dundalk played?
- Waterford vs Dundalk is played on September 11, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Waterford Regional Sports Centre, in the Premier Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.