Sirius vs IF Elfsborg: prediction and stats
AllsvenskanRegular Season - 24Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Studenternas IP, Uppsala
The Footlab model makes Sirius the favourite at 56%, against 23% for a draw and 21% for IF Elfsborg. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sirius vs IF Elfsborg?
Sirius starts as the favourite with a 106-point Elo edge (1,940 vs 1,834).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sirius have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; IF Elfsborg have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | BK Hacken(home) | 0-3 | Allsvenskan |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Mjallby AIF(away) | 3-4 | Allsvenskan |
| Aug 10, 2026 | IF Brommapojkarna(home) | 2-2 | Allsvenskan |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Halmstad(away) | 2-0 | Allsvenskan |
| Jul 26, 2026 | IFK Goteborg(home) | 4-1 | Allsvenskan |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | IFK Goteborg(away) | 1-1 | Allsvenskan |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Västra Frölunda(away) | 4-0 | Svenska Cupen |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Vasteras SK FK(home) | 3-0 | Allsvenskan |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Mjallby AIF(away) | 1-0 | Allsvenskan |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Malmo FF(away) | 2-1 | Allsvenskan |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Sirius win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 IF Elfsborg win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 19, 2026 | IF Elfsborg 1-3 Sirius | Allsvenskan |
| Mar 8, 2026 | IF Elfsborg 1-2 Sirius | Svenska Cupen |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Sirius 4-0 IF Elfsborg | Allsvenskan |
| Apr 23, 2025 | IF Elfsborg 4-3 Sirius | Allsvenskan |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Sirius 4-1 IF Elfsborg | Allsvenskan |
| Apr 29, 2024 | IF Elfsborg 2-0 Sirius | Allsvenskan |
Last archived meeting: IF Elfsborg vs Sirius on Jul 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sirius score 2.5 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; IF Elfsborg score 1.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sirius | 2.5 | 1.7 | 3 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
| IF Elfsborg | 1.5 | 1.1 | 4 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sirius sit 1st in Allsvenskan (42 points from 18 matches) and IF Elfsborg sit 4th (28 points from 18 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sirius | 18 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 47 | 26 | 42 |
| 4 | IF Elfsborg | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 25 | 19 | 28 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sirius vs IF Elfsborg?
- The Footlab model makes Sirius the favourite at 56%, against 23% for a draw and 21% for IF Elfsborg.
- Where and when is Sirius vs IF Elfsborg played?
- Sirius vs IF Elfsborg is played on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Studenternas IP, in the Allsvenskan.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.