Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 12Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Lokomotiv, Plovdiv
The Footlab model makes Lokomotiv Plovdiv the favourite at 52%, against 27% for a draw and 20% for Slavia Sofia. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia?
A very open match: only 60 Elo points separate Lokomotiv Plovdiv (1,804) and Slavia Sofia (1,745).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lokomotiv Plovdiv have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Slavia Sofia have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Dunav Ruse(home) | 1-2 | First League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Levski Sofia(away) | 0-2 | First League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Spartak Varna(away) | 0-1 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia(home) | 2-1 | First League |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Ludogorets(away) | 0-1 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ludogorets(away) | 1-1 | First League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Botev Vratsa(away) | 3-0 | First League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Lokomotiv Sofia(home) | 1-1 | First League |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Arda Kardzhali(away) | 0-1 | First League |
| Jul 20, 2026 | CSKA Sofia(home) | 0-0 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Lokomotiv Plovdiv win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Slavia Sofia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2026 | Slavia Sofia 0-2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv | First League |
| Aug 15, 2025 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2-1 Slavia Sofia | First League |
| May 19, 2025 | Slavia Sofia 1-2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv | First League |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0-1 Slavia Sofia | First League |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Slavia Sofia 2-1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv | First League |
| Jul 3, 2024 | Slavia Sofia 1-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Slavia Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv on Feb 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Lokomotiv Plovdiv score 1.0 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Slavia Sofia score 1.0 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 1.0 | 1.1 | 5 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| Slavia Sofia | 1.0 | 1.2 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lokomotiv Plovdiv sit 11th in First League (3 points from 5 matches) and Slavia Sofia sit 9th (6 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Slavia Sofia | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia?
- The Footlab model makes Lokomotiv Plovdiv the favourite at 52%, against 27% for a draw and 20% for Slavia Sofia.
- Where and when is Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia played?
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia is played on October 24, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Lokomotiv, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.