Smorgon vs Niva: prediction and stats
1. DivisionRegular Season - 25Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadyen Junatstva, Smorgon
The Footlab model makes Niva the favourite at 56%, against 22% for a draw and 22% for Smorgon. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Smorgon vs Niva?
Niva starts as the favourite with a 131-point Elo edge (1,562 vs 1,431).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Smorgon have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Niva have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ostrovets FC(home) | 0-1 | 1. Division |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Slonim(away) | 2-0 | 1. Division |
| Aug 10, 2026 | BATE II(home) | 2-0 | 1. Division |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Uni Minsk(away) | 0-2 | 1. Division |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Molodechno-DYuSSh 4(away) | 0-3 | 1. Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Lida(away) | 2-3 | 1. Division |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Shakhter Soligorsk(away) | 6-2 | 1. Division |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk(home) | 2-1 | 1. Division |
| Aug 5, 2026 | FC Slutsk(home) | 2-1 | 1. Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Dinamo Minsk II(away) | 2-1 | 1. Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Smorgon win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Niva win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | Niva 3-0 Smorgon | 1. Division |
How many goals should we expect?
Smorgon score 2.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Niva score 2.7 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smorgon | 2.1 | 1.3 | 7 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Niva | 2.7 | 1.2 | 3 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Smorgon sit 14th in 1. Division (23 points from 21 matches) and Niva sit 1st (42 points from 21 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Niva | 21 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 51 | 26 | 42 |
| 9 | Niva | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 15 | 17 |
| 14 | Smorgon | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 24 | 30 | 23 |
| 16 | Smorgon | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 20 | 10 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Smorgon vs Niva?
- The Footlab model makes Niva the favourite at 56%, against 22% for a draw and 22% for Smorgon.
- Where and when is Smorgon vs Niva played?
- Smorgon vs Niva is played on September 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadyen Junatstva, in the 1. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.