Smorgon vs Orsha: prediction and stats
1. DivisionRegular Season - 32Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadyen Junatstva, Smorgon
The Footlab AI model makes Smorgon the favourite at 62%, against 22% for a draw and 16% for Orsha. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Smorgon vs Orsha?
Smorgon starts as the favourite with a 204-point Elo edge (1,452 vs 1,249).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Smorgon vs Orsha
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Smorgon
4-3-3- 17M. Dukso
- 7J. Nsangou
- 23A. Stankevich
- 30B. Fartuna
- 99G. Malashenko
- 78V. Kovalevich
- 2C. Intsoen
- 77I. Bogdanovich
- 27A. Tishko
- 3M. Autko
- 1Maksim Azarko
Orsha
4-3-3- 11D. Stain
- 16M. Pashkevich
- 17Y. Kulesh
- 10Alexander Alexandrovich
- 93P. Bordukov
- 9D. Tikhomirov
- 82V. Shalychev
- 5N. Tarbyakov
- 3N. Bykov
- 18N. Volchenko
- 1A. Volodkov
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 02:35 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Smorgon have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Orsha have 3, 4 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Minsk II(away) | 2-0 | 1. Division |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Osipovichy(home) | 2-0 | 1. Division |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Lida(away) | 1-2 | 1. Division |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Niva(home) | 1-0 | 1. Division |
| Sep 12, 2026 | FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk(away) | 2-0 | 1. Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Lida(away) | 0-1 | 1. Division |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Niva(home) | 0-0 | 1. Division |
| Sep 26, 2026 | FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk(away) | 1-5 | 1. Division |
| Sep 19, 2026 | FC Slutsk(home) | 0-3 | 1. Division |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Dinamo Minsk II(away) | 0-0 | 1. Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Smorgon win, 3 draws, 2 Orsha wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 11, 2026 | Orsha 1-1 Smorgon | 1. Division |
| Oct 8, 2022 | Smorgon 3-2 Orsha | 1. Division |
| Jun 5, 2022 | Orsha 1-1 Smorgon | 1. Division |
| Sep 6, 2020 | Smorgon 0-1 Orsha | 1. Division |
| May 2, 2020 | Orsha 0-0 Smorgon | 1. Division |
| Aug 31, 2019 | Orsha 3-1 Smorgon | 1. Division |
How many goals should we expect?
Smorgon score 1.4 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Orsha score 1.0 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smorgon | 1.4 | 1.1 | 7 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| Orsha | 1.0 | 1.9 | 3 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Smorgon sit 9th in 1. Division (36 points from 28 matches) and Orsha sit 14th (27 points from 28 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Smorgon | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 35 | 36 | 36 |
| 14 | Orsha | 28 | 7 | 6 | 15 | 28 | 52 | 27 |
A question about Smorgon vs Orsha?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Smorgon vs Orsha?
- The Footlab AI model makes Smorgon the favourite at 62%, against 22% for a draw and 16% for Orsha.
- Where and when is Smorgon vs Orsha played?
- Smorgon vs Orsha is played on November 7, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadyen Junatstva, in the 1. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.