Smorgon vs Orsha: prediction and stats
1. DivisionRegular Season - 32Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadyen Junatstva, Smorgon
The Footlab model makes Smorgon the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for Orsha. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Smorgon vs Orsha?
Smorgon starts as the favourite with a 153-point Elo edge (1,431 vs 1,278).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Smorgon have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Orsha have 3, 4 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ostrovets FC(home) | 0-1 | 1. Division |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Slonim(away) | 2-0 | 1. Division |
| Aug 10, 2026 | BATE II(home) | 2-0 | 1. Division |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Uni Minsk(away) | 0-2 | 1. Division |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Molodechno-DYuSSh 4(away) | 0-3 | 1. Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | BATE II(home) | 1-2 | 1. Division |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Uni Minsk(away) | 0-0 | 1. Division |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Molodechno-DYuSSh 4(home) | 0-3 | 1. Division |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Gomel II(home) | 2-1 | 1. Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Shakhter Soligorsk(home) | 3-1 | 1. Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Smorgon win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Orsha win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 11, 2026 | Orsha 1-1 Smorgon | 1. Division |
| Oct 8, 2022 | Smorgon 3-2 Orsha | 1. Division |
| Jun 5, 2022 | Orsha 1-1 Smorgon | 1. Division |
| Sep 6, 2020 | Smorgon 0-1 Orsha | 1. Division |
| May 2, 2020 | Orsha 0-0 Smorgon | 1. Division |
| Aug 31, 2019 | Orsha 3-1 Smorgon | 1. Division |
How many goals should we expect?
Smorgon score 2.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Orsha score 1.1 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smorgon | 2.1 | 1.3 | 7 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Orsha | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Smorgon sit 14th in 1. Division (23 points from 21 matches) and Orsha sit 15th (22 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Orsha | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 11 |
| 14 | Smorgon | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 24 | 30 | 23 |
| 15 | Orsha | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 22 | 35 | 22 |
| 16 | Smorgon | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 20 | 10 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Smorgon vs Orsha?
- The Footlab model makes Smorgon the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for Orsha.
- Where and when is Smorgon vs Orsha played?
- Smorgon vs Orsha is played on November 7, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadyen Junatstva, in the 1. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.