South Korea vs United Arab Emirates: prediction and stats
Asian CupGroup Stage - 3Kick-off on January 20, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Yongin Mireu Stadium, Yongin
The Footlab model makes South Korea the favourite at 51%, against 26% for a draw and 23% for United Arab Emirates. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win South Korea vs United Arab Emirates?
South Korea starts as the favourite with a 127-point Elo edge (1,764 vs 1,637).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, South Korea have 8 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats; United Arab Emirates have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 25, 2026 | South Africa(away) | 0-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 19, 2026 | Mexico(away) | 0-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 12, 2026 | Czechia(home) | 2-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 4, 2026 | El Salvador(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| May 31, 2026 | Trinidad and Tobago(home) | 5-0 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 15, 2025 | Morocco(away) | 0-3 | Arab Cup |
| Dec 12, 2025 | Algeria(away) | 1-1 | Arab Cup |
| Dec 9, 2025 | Kuwait(home) | 3-1 | Arab Cup |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Egypt(home) | 1-1 | Arab Cup |
| Dec 3, 2025 | Jordan(away) | 1-2 | Arab Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 South Korea win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 United Arab Emirates win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2022 | United Arab Emirates 1-0 South Korea | World Cup - Qualification Asia |
| Nov 11, 2021 | South Korea 1-0 United Arab Emirates | World Cup - Qualification Asia |
Last archived meeting: United Arab Emirates vs South Korea on Mar 29, 2022
How many goals should we expect?
South Korea score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; United Arab Emirates score 1.2 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Korea | 1.3 | 1.1 | 7 | 2/15 | 5/15 |
| United Arab Emirates | 1.2 | 1.3 | 2 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for South Korea vs United Arab Emirates?
- The Footlab model makes South Korea the favourite at 51%, against 26% for a draw and 23% for United Arab Emirates.
- Where and when is South Korea vs United Arab Emirates played?
- South Korea vs United Arab Emirates is played on January 20, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Yongin Mireu Stadium, in the Asian Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.