Southampton vs Cardiff: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 25Kick-off on January 1, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton, Hampshire
The Footlab model makes Southampton the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Cardiff. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Southampton vs Cardiff?
A very open match: only 35 Elo points separate Southampton (2,040) and Cardiff (2,005).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Southampton have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Cardiff have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Stoke City(home) | 3-1 | Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Watford(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Colchester(away) | 2-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Preußen Münster(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Eintracht Braunschweig(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Derby(away) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Wrexham(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Swindon Town(home) | 3-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | AS Roma(home) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Forest Green(away) | 5-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Southampton win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Cardiff win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2024 | Cardiff 3-5 Southampton | League Cup |
| Apr 20, 2024 | Cardiff 2-1 Southampton | Championship |
| Dec 2, 2023 | Southampton 2-0 Cardiff | Championship |
| Jul 27, 2021 | Cardiff 0-4 Southampton | Friendlies Clubs |
| Feb 9, 2019 | Southampton 1-2 Cardiff | Premier League |
| Dec 8, 2018 | Cardiff 1-0 Southampton | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Cardiff vs Southampton on Aug 28, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Southampton score 1.9 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Cardiff score 2.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton | 1.9 | 1.0 | 4 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| Cardiff | 2.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Southampton sit 24th in Championship (-1 points from 2 matches) and Cardiff sit 12th (2 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Cardiff | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| 24 | Southampton | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Southampton vs Cardiff?
- The Footlab model makes Southampton the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Cardiff.
- Where and when is Southampton vs Cardiff played?
- Southampton vs Cardiff is played on January 1, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at St. Mary's Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.