Southampton vs Stoke City: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 2Kick-off on August 22, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton, Hampshire
The Footlab model makes Southampton the favourite at 65%, against 22% for a draw and 13% for Stoke City. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Southampton vs Stoke City?
Southampton starts as the favourite with a 238-point Elo edge (2,025 vs 1,787).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Southampton have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Stoke City have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Watford(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Colchester(away) | 2-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Preußen Münster(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Eintracht Braunschweig(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Eastleigh(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Swansea(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Oldham(home) | 2-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Valencia(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Everton(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Crewe(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Southampton win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Stoke City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | Stoke City 0-2 Southampton | Championship |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Southampton 1-2 Stoke City | Championship |
| Oct 29, 2024 | Southampton 3-2 Stoke City | League Cup |
| Apr 27, 2024 | Southampton 0-1 Stoke City | Championship |
| Oct 3, 2023 | Stoke City 0-1 Southampton | Championship |
| Mar 3, 2018 | Southampton 0-0 Stoke City | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Stoke City vs Southampton on Jan 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Southampton score 2.1 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Stoke City score 1.2 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton | 2.1 | 1.0 | 4 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| Stoke City | 1.2 | 1.6 | 3 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Southampton sit 24th in Championship (-4 points from 1 matches) and Stoke City sit 20th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Stoke City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 24 | Southampton | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -4 |
Who is out?
4 reported absence(s) for this match.
- C. JanderSouthamptonDoubtful(Lacking Match Fitness)
- A. CresswellStoke CityOut(Injury)
- Ato AmpahStoke CityOut(Hamstring Injury)
- J. TchamadeuStoke CityOut(Knee Injury)
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Southampton vs Stoke City?
- The Footlab model makes Southampton the favourite at 65%, against 22% for a draw and 13% for Stoke City.
- Where and when is Southampton vs Stoke City played?
- Southampton vs Stoke City is played on August 22, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at St. Mary's Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.