Millwall vs Norwich: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 2Kick-off on August 22, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC)The Den, London
The Footlab model makes Norwich the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for Millwall. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Millwall vs Norwich?
A very open match: only 36 Elo points separate Millwall (1,949) and Norwich (1,913).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Millwall have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Norwich have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bristol City(away) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | QPR(away) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Antwerp(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Bromley(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Stevenage(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | West Brom(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Milton Keynes Dons(home) | 4-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Cambridge United(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Osasuna(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | AFC Wimbledon(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Millwall win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Norwich win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2026 | Millwall 1-2 Norwich | Championship |
| Aug 9, 2025 | Norwich 1-2 Millwall | Championship |
| Apr 21, 2025 | Millwall 3-1 Norwich | Championship |
| Dec 26, 2024 | Norwich 2-1 Millwall | Championship |
| Dec 29, 2023 | Millwall 1-0 Norwich | Championship |
| Aug 20, 2023 | Norwich 3-1 Millwall | Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Millwall score 1.1 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Norwich score 1.5 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Millwall | 1.1 | 0.7 | 6 | 6/15 | 3/15 |
| Norwich | 1.5 | 1.0 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Millwall sit 2nd in Championship (3 points from 1 matches) and Norwich sit 18th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Millwall | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 18 | Norwich | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Who is out?
7 reported absence(s) for this match.
- A. DoughtyMillwallDoubtful(Injury)
- D. Mazou-SackoMillwallOut(Injury)
- M. IvanovićMillwallDoubtful(Injury)
- M. ServaisMillwallOut(Injury)
- T. CramaMillwallOut(Injury)
- J. MakamaNorwichOut(Foot Injury)
- L. GibbsNorwichOut(Muscle Injury)
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Millwall vs Norwich?
- The Footlab model makes Norwich the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for Millwall.
- Where and when is Millwall vs Norwich played?
- Millwall vs Norwich is played on August 22, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC) at The Den, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.