Wrexham vs Watford: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 2Kick-off on August 22, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)STōK Cae Ras, Wrecsam
The Footlab model makes Wrexham the favourite at 53%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Watford. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Wrexham vs Watford?
Wrexham starts as the favourite with a 210-point Elo edge (2,009 vs 1,799).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Wrexham have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Watford have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Cardiff(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Middlesbrough(away) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Sunderland(home) | 0-1 | Premier League - Summer Series |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Liverpool(away) | 0-1 | Premier League - Summer Series |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Leeds(home) | 3-2 | Premier League - Summer Series |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Southampton(home) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Crawley Town(home) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Fiorentina(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Hansa Rostock(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Barnet(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Wrexham win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Watford win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | Watford 3-1 Wrexham | Championship |
| Dec 13, 2025 | Wrexham 2-2 Watford | Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Wrexham score 1.1 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Watford score 1.0 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wrexham | 1.1 | 1.4 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Watford | 1.0 | 1.7 | 3 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Wrexham sit 14th in Championship (1 points from 1 matches) and Watford sit 6th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Watford | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 14 | Wrexham | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Who is out?
8 reported absence(s) for this match.
- J. GrievesWatfordOut(Lacking Match Fitness)
- J. NgakiaWatfordOut(Thigh Injury)
- K. BaahWatfordDoubtful(Knock)
- Travis AkomeahWatfordOut(Lacking Match Fitness)
- B. SheafWrexhamDoubtful(Inactive)
- J. WindassWrexhamOut(Inactive)
- L. CacaceWrexhamDoubtful(Inactive)
- S. RevanWrexhamDoubtful(Hamstring Injury)
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Wrexham vs Watford?
- The Footlab model makes Wrexham the favourite at 53%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Watford.
- Where and when is Wrexham vs Watford played?
- Wrexham vs Watford is played on August 22, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at STōK Cae Ras, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.