Hednesford Town vs Chorley: prediction and stats
National League - NorthNational League North - 24Kick-off on December 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Keys Park, Hednesford, Staffordshire
The Footlab model makes Hednesford Town the favourite at 50%, against 24% for a draw and 26% for Chorley. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Hednesford Town vs Chorley?
A very open match: only 78 Elo points separate Hednesford Town (1,858) and Chorley (1,780).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Hednesford Town have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Chorley have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | AFC Telford United(away) | 1-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Southport(home) | 2-2 | National League - North |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Scarborough Athletic(home) | 3-4 | National League - North |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Merthyr Town(away) | 0-2 | National League - North |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Boston United(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Scarborough Athletic(home) | 2-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Marine(away) | 2-0 | National League - North |
| Aug 15, 2026 | South Shields(away) | 1-2 | National League - North |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Chester(home) | 1-2 | National League - North |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Trafford(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
Hednesford Town score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Chorley score 0.9 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hednesford Town | 1.7 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Chorley | 0.9 | 1.2 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Hednesford Town sit 23rd in National League - North (2 points from 4 matches) and Chorley sit 9th (6 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Chorley | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| 23 | Hednesford Town | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Hednesford Town vs Chorley?
- The Footlab model makes Hednesford Town the favourite at 50%, against 24% for a draw and 26% for Chorley.
- Where and when is Hednesford Town vs Chorley played?
- Hednesford Town vs Chorley is played on December 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Keys Park, in the National League - North.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.