Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 13Kick-off on November 22, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Rotterdam
The Footlab AI model makes AZ Alkmaar the favourite at 56%, against 22% for a draw and 22% for Sparta Rotterdam. The most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 4,528 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 5, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar starts as the favourite with a 217-point Elo edge (2,150 vs 1,933).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Sparta Rotterdam
5-4-1- 9M. Zonneveld
- 11I. Babadi
- 10J. Toornstra
- 7M. van Bergen
- 18Robin van Cruijsen
- 5B. Kuipers
- 3M. Young
- 2L. Martes
- 6N. Verschuren
- 4B. Martins Indi
- 1M. Brouwer
AZ Alkmaar
4-2-3-1- 9M. Meerdink
- 6P. Koopmeiners
- 11R. Daal
- 21D. Kwakman
- 17V. Byskov
- 7Weslley Patati
- 4L. Schouten
- 22E. Dijkstra
- 3W. Goes
- 34M. de Wit
- 28J. De Busser
Computed on November 5, 2026 at 12:40 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sparta Rotterdam have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; AZ Alkmaar have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Groningen(away) | 3-2 | Eredivisie |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Fortuna Sittard(home) | 2-2 | KNVB Beker |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Ajax(home) | 1-2 | Eredivisie |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Willem II(home) | 3-2 | Eredivisie |
| Oct 10, 2026 | GO Ahead Eagles(away) | 3-3 | Eredivisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Ajax(away) | 0-1 | Eredivisie |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Twente(home) | 0-2 | Eredivisie |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Ararat-Armenia(away) | 4-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Cambuur(away) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Hapoel Beer Sheva(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Sparta Rotterdam win, 1 draw, 4 AZ Alkmaar wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2026 | AZ Alkmaar 3-1 Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Sparta Rotterdam 0-1 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| Jan 26, 2025 | AZ Alkmaar 1-2 Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie |
| Nov 24, 2024 | Sparta Rotterdam 1-2 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| Mar 2, 2024 | Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| Sep 17, 2023 | AZ Alkmaar 2-0 Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie |
Last archived meeting: AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam on Feb 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sparta Rotterdam score 1.7 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; AZ Alkmaar score 2.0 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1 | 12/15 | 12/15 |
| AZ Alkmaar | 2.0 | 1.0 | 5 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sparta Rotterdam sit 11th in Eredivisie (12 points from 11 matches) and AZ Alkmaar sit 5th (20 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 13 | 20 |
| 11 | Sparta Rotterdam | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 26 | 12 |
A question about Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?
- The Footlab AI model makes AZ Alkmaar the favourite at 56%, against 22% for a draw and 22% for Sparta Rotterdam.
- Where and when is Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar played?
- Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar is played on November 22, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.