Spartak Varna vs Botev Plovdiv: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 17Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Spartak, Varna
The Footlab AI model makes Botev Plovdiv the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Spartak Varna. The most likely score is 1-1. If Botev Plovdiv wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 4,928 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Spartak Varna vs Botev Plovdiv?
Botev Plovdiv starts as the favourite with a 134-point Elo edge (1,839 vs 1,705).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Spartak Varna vs Botev Plovdiv
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Spartak Varna
4-2-3-1- 11Boubacar Hanne
- 19S. Major
- 17T. Marinov
- 6José Ricardo Gomes Sousa
- 82Tomás Silva
- 7Buá
- 44A. Granchov
- 5D. Krastev
- 29Z. Tindano
- 76David Valverde
- 23P. Iliev
Botev Plovdiv
3-4-2-1- 90S. Kalu
- 10A. Chandarov
- 77Lucas Araújo
- 16V. Vidolov
- 7Alberto Salido
- 13S. Tsonov
- 17G. Milanov
- 4N. Soldo
- 87S. Petrov
- 15B. Kostov
- 29D. Naumov
Computed on November 8, 2026 at 09:45 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Spartak Varna have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Botev Plovdiv have 9, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2026 | CSKA 1948(away) | 1-6 | First League |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Dunav Ruse(away) | 0-2 | First League |
| Oct 19, 2026 | Etar Veliko Tarnovo(away) | 4-2 | Cup |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Botev Vratsa(away) | 1-0 | First League |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Lokomotiv Sofia(home) | 0-1 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2026 | Dunav Ruse(home) | 1-1 | First League |
| Oct 30, 2026 | Lokomotiv Sofia(away) | 5-2 | First League |
| Oct 23, 2026 | CSKA 1948(away) | 0-4 | First League |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Chernomorets 1919 Burgas(away) | 4-0 | Cup |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Botev Vratsa(home) | 2-0 | Pro Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Spartak Varna win, 0 draws, 5 Botev Plovdiv wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 10, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv 3-2 Spartak Varna | First League |
| Jul 1, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv 1-0 Spartak Varna | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv 5-0 Spartak Varna | First League |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv 1-0 Spartak Varna | Friendlies Clubs |
| Dec 13, 2025 | Spartak Varna 0-2 Botev Plovdiv | Cup |
| Oct 24, 2025 | Spartak Varna 3-2 Botev Plovdiv | First League |
Last archived meeting: Botev Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna on Aug 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Spartak Varna score 1.5 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Botev Plovdiv score 1.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spartak Varna | 1.5 | 1.9 | 4 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Botev Plovdiv | 1.9 | 1.3 | 6 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Spartak Varna sit 8th in First League (13 points from 13 matches) and Botev Plovdiv sit 5th (23 points from 14 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Botev Plovdiv | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 21 | 23 |
| 8 | Spartak Varna | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 23 | 13 |
A question about Spartak Varna vs Botev Plovdiv?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Spartak Varna vs Botev Plovdiv?
- The Footlab AI model makes Botev Plovdiv the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Spartak Varna.
- Where and when is Spartak Varna vs Botev Plovdiv played?
- Spartak Varna vs Botev Plovdiv is played on December 5, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Spartak, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.