Sport Boys vs Alianza Atletico: prediction and stats
Primera DivisiónClausura - 11Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Miguel Grau del Callao, Callao
The Footlab model makes Sport Boys the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Alianza Atletico. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sport Boys vs Alianza Atletico?
A very open match: only 58 Elo points separate Sport Boys (1,636) and Alianza Atletico (1,694).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sport Boys have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Alianza Atletico have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Cienciano(home) | 5-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | UCV Moquegua(away) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Alianza Lima(home) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Atletico Grau(away) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Jul 25, 2026 | ADT(home) | 2-0 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | UTC Cajamarca(home) | 1-1 | Copa De La Liga |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Sporting Cristal(home) | 3-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 15, 2026 | ADT(away) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Cienciano(home) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Alianza Lima(away) | 1-3 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Sport Boys win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Alianza Atletico win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | Alianza Atletico 0-1 Sport Boys | Primera División |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Sport Boys 0-1 Alianza Atletico | Primera División |
| Jul 12, 2025 | Alianza Atletico 1-0 Sport Boys | Primera División |
| Aug 24, 2024 | Alianza Atletico 2-0 Sport Boys | Primera División |
| Mar 31, 2024 | Sport Boys 0-0 Alianza Atletico | Primera División |
| Jun 25, 2023 | Alianza Atletico 1-2 Sport Boys | Primera División |
Last archived meeting: Alianza Atletico vs Sport Boys on Apr 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sport Boys score 1.4 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Alianza Atletico score 1.3 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Boys | 1.4 | 0.7 | 8 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
| Alianza Atletico | 1.3 | 1.2 | 5 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sport Boys sit 11th in Primera División (20 points from 17 matches) and Alianza Atletico sit 8th (21 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Sport Boys | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 11 |
| 5 | Sport Boys | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 18 | 21 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 18 | 21 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 30 | 28 | 31 |
| 9 | Sport Boys | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 25 | 23 | 31 |
| 10 | Alianza Atletico | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
| 11 | Sport Boys | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 19 | 20 |
| 11 | Sport Boys | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 19 | 20 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sport Boys vs Alianza Atletico?
- The Footlab model makes Sport Boys the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Alianza Atletico.
- Where and when is Sport Boys vs Alianza Atletico played?
- Sport Boys vs Alianza Atletico is played on September 26, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Miguel Grau del Callao, in the Primera División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 26, 2026UTC CajamarcavsSporting Cristal
- Sep 26, 2026UniversitariovsFBC Melgar
- Sep 26, 2026Comerciantes UnidosvsJuan Pablo II College
- Sep 26, 2026Atletico GrauvsClub Deportivo Los Chankas
- Sep 26, 2026CuscovsAlianza Lima
- Sep 26, 2026ADTvsFC Cajamarca
- Sep 26, 2026Deportivo GarcilasovsSport Huancayo
- Sep 26, 2026UCV MoqueguavsCienciano