UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal: prediction and stats
Primera DivisiónClausura - 11Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Héroes de San Ramón, Cajamarca
The Footlab model makes Sporting Cristal the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for UTC Cajamarca. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal?
Sporting Cristal starts as the favourite with a 203-point Elo edge (1,734 vs 1,530).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, UTC Cajamarca have 1 wins, 6 draws and 8 defeats; Sporting Cristal have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Comerciantes Unidos(home) | 1-3 | Primera División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Alianza Lima(away) | 0-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | ADT(home) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Cusco(away) | 1-4 | Primera División |
| Jul 26, 2026 | UCV Moquegua(home) | 0-0 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Alianza Atletico(away) | 1-3 | Primera División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Sport Huancayo(home) | 4-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Universitario(away) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Juan Pablo II College(home) | 2-0 | Primera División |
| Jul 30, 2026 | RB Bragantino(away) | 0-1 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 UTC Cajamarca win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Sporting Cristal win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | Sporting Cristal 3-2 UTC Cajamarca | Primera División |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Sporting Cristal 2-2 UTC Cajamarca | Primera División |
| Apr 6, 2025 | UTC Cajamarca 4-1 Sporting Cristal | Primera División |
| Aug 25, 2024 | Sporting Cristal 4-0 UTC Cajamarca | Primera División |
| Mar 31, 2024 | UTC Cajamarca 1-2 Sporting Cristal | Primera División |
| Sep 26, 2023 | Sporting Cristal 1-1 UTC Cajamarca | Primera División |
Last archived meeting: Sporting Cristal vs UTC Cajamarca on Apr 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
UTC Cajamarca score 1.1 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Sporting Cristal score 1.4 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTC Cajamarca | 1.1 | 1.9 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Sporting Cristal | 1.4 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
UTC Cajamarca sit 13th in Primera División (18 points from 17 matches) and Sporting Cristal sit 12th (19 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Sporting Cristal | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
| 5 | Sporting Cristal | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 10 |
| 10 | Sporting Cristal | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 38 | 37 | 29 |
| 12 | Sporting Cristal | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 28 | 30 | 19 |
| 12 | Sporting Cristal | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 28 | 30 | 19 |
| 13 | UTC Cajamarca | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 26 | 18 |
| 13 | UTC Cajamarca | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 26 | 18 |
| 17 | UTC Cajamarca | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 2 |
| 17 | UTC Cajamarca | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 2 |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 23 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 25 | 38 | 15 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal?
- The Footlab model makes Sporting Cristal the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for UTC Cajamarca.
- Where and when is UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal played?
- UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal is played on September 26, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Héroes de San Ramón, in the Primera División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 26, 2026UniversitariovsFBC Melgar
- Sep 26, 2026Sport BoysvsAlianza Atletico
- Sep 26, 2026Comerciantes UnidosvsJuan Pablo II College
- Sep 26, 2026Atletico GrauvsClub Deportivo Los Chankas
- Sep 26, 2026CuscovsAlianza Lima
- Sep 26, 2026ADTvsFC Cajamarca
- Sep 26, 2026Deportivo GarcilasovsSport Huancayo
- Sep 26, 2026UCV MoqueguavsCienciano