Universitario vs FBC Melgar: prediction and stats
Primera DivisiónClausura - 11Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Monumental, Lima
The Footlab model makes Universitario the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for FBC Melgar. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Universitario vs FBC Melgar?
A very open match: only 57 Elo points separate Universitario (1,808) and FBC Melgar (1,751).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Universitario have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; FBC Melgar have 6, 6 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas(home) | 3-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | FC Cajamarca(away) | 3-2 | Primera División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sporting Cristal(home) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Cienciano(away) | 0-2 | Primera División |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Cusco(home) | 2-1 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Alianza Lima(home) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas(away) | 3-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC Cajamarca(home) | 2-4 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | UCV Moquegua(away) | 0-0 | Primera División |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Sporting Cristal(home) | 2-1 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Universitario win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 FBC Melgar win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | FBC Melgar 2-1 Universitario | Primera División |
| Jan 20, 2026 | Universitario 3-2 FBC Melgar | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 14, 2025 | FBC Melgar 1-2 Universitario | Primera División |
| Apr 14, 2025 | Universitario 4-1 FBC Melgar | Primera División |
| Aug 1, 2024 | FBC Melgar 1-0 Universitario | Primera División |
| Feb 18, 2024 | Universitario 2-0 FBC Melgar | Primera División |
Last archived meeting: FBC Melgar vs Universitario on Apr 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Universitario score 1.0 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; FBC Melgar score 1.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Universitario | 1.0 | 0.9 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| FBC Melgar | 1.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Universitario sit 4th in Primera División (29 points from 17 matches) and FBC Melgar sit 5th (28 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Universitario | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 13 |
| 2 | Universitario | 23 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 35 | 22 | 42 |
| 4 | Universitario | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 15 | 29 |
| 4 | Universitario | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 15 | 29 |
| 4 | FBC Melgar | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 40 | 27 | 39 |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 29 | 20 | 28 |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 29 | 20 | 28 |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 11 |
| 6 | FBC Melgar | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 7 |
| 8 | Universitario | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Universitario vs FBC Melgar?
- The Footlab model makes Universitario the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for FBC Melgar.
- Where and when is Universitario vs FBC Melgar played?
- Universitario vs FBC Melgar is played on September 26, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Monumental, in the Primera División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 26, 2026UTC CajamarcavsSporting Cristal
- Sep 26, 2026Sport BoysvsAlianza Atletico
- Sep 26, 2026Comerciantes UnidosvsJuan Pablo II College
- Sep 26, 2026Atletico GrauvsClub Deportivo Los Chankas
- Sep 26, 2026CuscovsAlianza Lima
- Sep 26, 2026ADTvsFC Cajamarca
- Sep 26, 2026Deportivo GarcilasovsSport Huancayo
- Sep 26, 2026UCV MoqueguavsCienciano