Sporting Gijón II vs Covadonga: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Group 2 - 33Kick-off on May 2, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Escuela de Fútbol de Mareo, Gijón
The Footlab model makes Sporting Gijón II the favourite at 47%, against 25% for a draw and 29% for Covadonga. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sporting Gijón II vs Covadonga?
A very open match: only 6 Elo points separate Sporting Gijón II (1,925) and Covadonga (1,931).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sporting Gijón II have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Covadonga have 9, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Real Avilés(away) | 2-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Llanera(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Cultural Leonesa II(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Palencia CF(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Marino de Luanco(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Caudal(home) | 2-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 31, 2026 | Caudal(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 24, 2026 | Mosconia(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 17, 2026 | Mosconia(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 9, 2026 | Real Titánico(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Sporting Gijón II win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Covadonga win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Covadonga 5-0 Sporting Gijón II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Sporting Gijón II 1-1 Covadonga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 25, 2025 | Covadonga 0-1 Sporting Gijón II | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| May 18, 2025 | Sporting Gijón II 2-0 Covadonga | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Sporting Gijón II 0-2 Covadonga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Dec 1, 2024 | Covadonga 0-0 Sporting Gijón II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
Last archived meeting: Covadonga vs Sporting Gijón II on Apr 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sporting Gijón II score 1.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Covadonga score 2.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Gijón II | 1.9 | 1.3 | 7 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
| Covadonga | 2.7 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sporting Gijón II sit 3rd in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 (67 points from 34 matches) and Covadonga sit 2nd (80 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Covadonga | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 88 | 24 | 80 |
| 3 | Sporting Gijón II | 34 | 19 | 10 | 5 | 79 | 29 | 67 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sporting Gijón II vs Covadonga?
- The Footlab model makes Sporting Gijón II the favourite at 47%, against 25% for a draw and 29% for Covadonga.
- Where and when is Sporting Gijón II vs Covadonga played?
- Sporting Gijón II vs Covadonga is played on May 2, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Escuela de Fútbol de Mareo, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.