Sporting Gijón II vs Covadonga: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Group 2 - 33Kick-off on May 2, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Escuela de Fútbol de Mareo, Gijón
The Footlab AI model makes Sporting Gijón II the favourite at 50%, against 24% for a draw and 26% for Covadonga. The most likely score is 1-1. If Sporting Gijón II wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,857 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 20, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sporting Gijón II vs Covadonga?
A very open match: only 5 Elo points separate Sporting Gijón II (1,962) and Covadonga (1,956).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Sporting Gijón II vs Covadonga
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Sporting Gijón II
Not enough data to predict the Sporting Gijón II lineup.
Covadonga
Not enough data to predict the Covadonga lineup.
Computed on October 20, 2026 at 02:22 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sporting Gijón II have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Covadonga have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Colunga(home) | 4-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Caudal(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Langreo(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Avilés Stadium(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Lealtad(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Mosconia(home) | 4-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | San Martín(away) | 2-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Siero(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Colunga(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Caudal(home) | 4-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Sporting Gijón II wins, 2 draws, 2 Covadonga wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Covadonga 5-0 Sporting Gijón II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Sporting Gijón II 1-1 Covadonga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 25, 2025 | Covadonga 0-1 Sporting Gijón II | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| May 18, 2025 | Sporting Gijón II 2-0 Covadonga | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Sporting Gijón II 0-2 Covadonga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Dec 1, 2024 | Covadonga 0-0 Sporting Gijón II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
Last archived meeting: Covadonga vs Sporting Gijón II on Apr 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sporting Gijón II score 1.7 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Covadonga score 2.5 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Gijón II | 1.7 | 0.9 | 6 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Covadonga | 2.5 | 1.2 | 6 | 8/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sporting Gijón II sit 1st in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 (17 points from 7 matches) and Covadonga sit 2nd (16 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting Gijón II | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 5 | 17 |
| 2 | Covadonga | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 8 | 16 |
A question about Sporting Gijón II vs Covadonga?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sporting Gijón II vs Covadonga?
- The Footlab AI model makes Sporting Gijón II the favourite at 50%, against 24% for a draw and 26% for Covadonga.
- Where and when is Sporting Gijón II vs Covadonga played?
- Sporting Gijón II vs Covadonga is played on May 2, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Escuela de Fútbol de Mareo, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.