Stade Malien Bamako vs Colombe: prediction and stats
CAF Champions LeagueSemi-finalsKick-off on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stade 26 Mars, Bamako
The Footlab model makes Stade Malien Bamako the favourite at 56%, against 28% for a draw and 15% for Colombe. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Stade Malien Bamako vs Colombe?
A very open match: only 73 Elo points separate Stade Malien Bamako (1,859) and Colombe (1,786).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Stade Malien Bamako have 10 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeats; Colombe have 13, 2 and 0.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 13, 2026 | Diarra(away) | 2-0 | Première Division |
| Jun 9, 2026 | Binga(home) | 2-1 | Première Division |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Bakaridjan(away) | 2-0 | Première Division |
| May 31, 2026 | USFAS Bamako(home) | 2-2 | Première Division |
| May 24, 2026 | Mali Coura(away) | 1-1 | Première Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 21, 2026 | Aigle Royal(home) | 1-0 | Elite One |
| Jun 14, 2026 | PWD Bamenda(away) | 2-1 | Elite One |
| Jun 10, 2026 | Jeunes Fauves(home) | 7-0 | Elite One |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Canon(away) | 1-0 | Elite One |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Unisport Bafang(home) | 3-1 | Elite One |
How many goals should we expect?
Stade Malien Bamako score 1.5 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; Colombe score 2.5 and concede 0.3. The model gives a 34% probability of over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Malien Bamako | 1.5 | 0.5 | 10 | 4/15 | 5/15 |
| Colombe | 2.5 | 0.3 | 10 | 5/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stade Malien Bamako | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 11 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Stade Malien Bamako vs Colombe?
- The Footlab model makes Stade Malien Bamako the favourite at 56%, against 28% for a draw and 15% for Colombe.
- Where and when is Stade Malien Bamako vs Colombe played?
- Stade Malien Bamako vs Colombe is played on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stade 26 Mars, in the CAF Champions League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 34% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.