Stevenage vs Reading: prediction and stats
League OneRegular Season - 21Kick-off on December 26, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)The Lamex Stadium, Stevenage, Hertfordshire
The Footlab model makes Stevenage the favourite at 39%, against 29% for a draw and 32% for Reading. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Stevenage vs Reading?
A very open match: only 14 Elo points separate Stevenage (1,831) and Reading (1,845).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Stevenage have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Reading have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Oxford United(home) | 1-2 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Burton Albion(away) | 1-1 | League One |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Wycombe(away) | 2-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Colchester(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Millwall(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | AFC Wimbledon(away) | 0-0 | League One |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Wycombe(home) | 1-1 | EFL Trophy |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Luton(home) | 3-4 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Bromley(away) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Charlton(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Stevenage win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Reading win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Stevenage 1-0 Reading | League One |
| Nov 6, 2025 | Reading 1-0 Stevenage | League One |
| Mar 15, 2025 | Reading 1-1 Stevenage | League One |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Stevenage 1-1 Reading | League One |
| Feb 6, 2024 | Stevenage 0-1 Reading | League One |
| Aug 19, 2023 | Reading 2-0 Stevenage | League One |
How many goals should we expect?
Stevenage score 0.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Reading score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevenage | 0.9 | 1.3 | 6 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Reading | 1.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Stevenage sit 19th in League One (1 points from 2 matches) and Reading sit 17th (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Reading | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| 19 | Stevenage | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Stevenage vs Reading?
- The Footlab model makes Stevenage the favourite at 39%, against 29% for a draw and 32% for Reading.
- Where and when is Stevenage vs Reading played?
- Stevenage vs Reading is played on December 26, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at The Lamex Stadium, in the League One.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.