Sunderland vs Leeds: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 8Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Stadium of Light, Sunderland
The Footlab AI model makes Sunderland the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Leeds. The most likely score is 1-1. If Sunderland wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sunderland vs Leeds?
On Elo ratings, Sunderland has 2,159 points and Leeds 2,262.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Sunderland vs Leeds
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Sunderland
4-2-3-1- 9B. Brobbey
- 27N. Sadiki
- 34G. Xhaka
- 28E. Le Fée
- 10N. Angulo
- 12T. Meunier
- 20N. Mukiele
- 4K. Danso
- 5D. Ballard
- 17Reinildo
- 22R. Roefs
Leeds
3-5-2- 9D. Calvert-Lewin
- 19N. Okafor
- 4E. Ampadu
- 2J. Bogle
- 18A. Stach
- 22A. Tanaka
- 3G. Gudmundsson
- 5T. Muharemović
- 24J. Justin
- 30N. Elvedi
- 1J. Trafford
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 09:15 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sunderland have 9 wins, 1 draw and 5 defeats; Leeds have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Manchester City(away) | 3-5 | Premier League |
| Sep 16, 2026 | AZ Alkmaar(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Arsenal(home) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Hull City(home) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Brentford(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Crystal Palace(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Newcastle(home) | 4-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Chelsea(away) | 3-6 | League Cup |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Brighton(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Brentford(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Sunderland win, 3 draws, 2 Leeds wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2026 | Sunderland 0-1 Leeds | Premier League - Summer Series |
| Mar 3, 2026 | Leeds 0-1 Sunderland | Premier League |
| Dec 28, 2025 | Sunderland 1-1 Leeds | Premier League |
| Feb 17, 2025 | Leeds 2-1 Sunderland | Championship |
| Oct 4, 2024 | Sunderland 2-2 Leeds | Championship |
| Apr 9, 2024 | Leeds 0-0 Sunderland | Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Sunderland score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Leeds score 1.8 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland | 1.7 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Leeds | 1.8 | 1.2 | 7 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sunderland sit 14th in Premier League (4 points from 5 matches) and Leeds sit 5th (9 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Leeds | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 9 |
| 14 | Sunderland | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 4 |
A question about Sunderland vs Leeds?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sunderland vs Leeds?
- The Footlab AI model makes Sunderland the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Leeds.
- Where and when is Sunderland vs Leeds played?
- Sunderland vs Leeds is played on October 24, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Stadium of Light, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.