Super Nova 2 vs Smiltene: prediction and stats
1. LigaRegular Season - 21Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Super Nova 2 the favourite at 61%, against 21% for a draw and 18% for Smiltene. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Super Nova 2 vs Smiltene?
Super Nova 2 starts as the favourite with a 159-point Elo edge (1,411 vs 1,252).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Super Nova 2 have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Smiltene have 3, 1 and 11.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Skanste(home) | 1-1 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Mārupe(away) | 1-2 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | JFK Ventspils(away) | 2-0 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Riga Mariners(home) | 0-3 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | JDFS Alberts(away) | 1-1 | 1. Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Leevon / PPK(away) | 2-4 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Valmiera / BSS(home) | 1-4 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | JFK Ventspils(away) | 2-1 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Rīgas FS II(home) | 3-5 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Rēzekne FA(home) | 1-0 | 1. Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 Super Nova 2 win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Smiltene win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 13, 2026 | Smiltene 0-2 Super Nova 2 | 1. Liga |
Last archived meeting: Smiltene vs Super Nova 2 on May 13, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Super Nova 2 score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Smiltene score 1.4 and concede 2.8. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Super Nova 2 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 4 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
| Smiltene | 1.4 | 2.8 | 1 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Super Nova 2 sit 7th in 1. Liga (15 points from 10 matches) and Smiltene sit 13th (4 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Super Nova 2 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| 7 | Super Nova 2 | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 25 | 26 | 24 |
| 13 | Smiltene | 10 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 27 | 4 |
| 13 | Smiltene | 17 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 21 | 47 | 10 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Super Nova 2 vs Smiltene?
- The Footlab model makes Super Nova 2 the favourite at 61%, against 21% for a draw and 18% for Smiltene.
- Where and when is Super Nova 2 vs Smiltene played?
- Super Nova 2 vs Smiltene is played on September 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC), in the 1. Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.