Valmiera / BSS vs Riga Mariners: prediction and stats
1. LigaRegular Season - 21Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Vidzemes Olimpiskais centrs, Valmiera
The Footlab model makes Valmiera / BSS the favourite at 53%, against 22% for a draw and 25% for Riga Mariners. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Valmiera / BSS vs Riga Mariners?
Valmiera / BSS starts as the favourite with a 113-point Elo edge (1,735 vs 1,622).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Valmiera / BSS have 12 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats; Riga Mariners have 10, 4 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Mārupe(home) | 4-1 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Smiltene(away) | 4-1 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Rīgas FS II(home) | 2-1 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Riga FC II(home) | 3-0 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Skanste(away) | 3-0 | 1. Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | Tukums II(home) | 4-2 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Super Nova 2(away) | 3-0 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | JFK Ventspils(home) | 1-1 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Leevon / PPK(away) | 1-2 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 4, 2026 | JDFS Alberts(away) | 4-0 | 1. Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Valmiera / BSS win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Riga Mariners win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Riga Mariners 3-1 Valmiera / BSS | 1. Liga |
| Jun 22, 2025 | Riga Mariners 4-3 Valmiera / BSS | Cup |
Last archived meeting: Riga Mariners vs Valmiera / BSS on May 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Valmiera / BSS score 2.6 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Riga Mariners score 2.7 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valmiera / BSS | 2.6 | 0.8 | 5 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Riga Mariners | 2.7 | 0.9 | 7 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Valmiera / BSS sit 3rd in 1. Liga (23 points from 10 matches) and Riga Mariners sit 4th (22 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Valmiera / BSS | 17 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 48 | 15 | 44 |
| 3 | Valmiera / BSS | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 26 | 11 | 23 |
| 4 | Riga Mariners | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 19 | 10 | 22 |
| 4 | Riga Mariners | 16 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 34 | 15 | 35 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Valmiera / BSS vs Riga Mariners?
- The Footlab model makes Valmiera / BSS the favourite at 53%, against 22% for a draw and 25% for Riga Mariners.
- Where and when is Valmiera / BSS vs Riga Mariners played?
- Valmiera / BSS vs Riga Mariners is played on September 19, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Vidzemes Olimpiskais centrs, in the 1. Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.