Tukums II vs Rēzekne FA: prediction and stats
1. LigaRegular Season - 21Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Tukuma mākslīgā laukumā stadions, Tukums
The Footlab model makes Tukums II the favourite at 62%, against 20% for a draw and 18% for Rēzekne FA. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tukums II vs Rēzekne FA?
Tukums II starts as the favourite with a 105-point Elo edge (1,259 vs 1,153).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tukums II have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Rēzekne FA have 1, 2 and 12.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | Riga Mariners(away) | 2-4 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 3, 2026 | JDFS Alberts(home) | 1-1 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Metta / LU(away) | 0-9 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 20, 2026 | Rīgas FS II(home) | 2-0 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Riga FC II(away) | 0-2 | 1. Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Metta / LU(home) | 0-2 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Skanste(away) | 1-5 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Leevon / PPK(away) | 1-2 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Mārupe(home) | 1-2 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Smiltene(away) | 0-1 | 1. Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Tukums II win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Rēzekne FA win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Rēzekne FA 1-4 Tukums II | 1. Liga |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Tukums II 1-2 Rēzekne FA | 1. Liga |
| May 3, 2025 | Rēzekne FA 1-1 Tukums II | 1. Liga |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Tukums II 1-1 Rēzekne FA | 1. Liga |
| Jul 26, 2024 | Rēzekne FA 2-1 Tukums II | 1. Liga |
| Oct 29, 2023 | Rēzekne FA 0-7 Tukums II | 1. Liga |
Last archived meeting: Rēzekne FA vs Tukums II on May 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Tukums II score 1.3 and concede 2.8 goals per match over their last 15; Rēzekne FA score 0.9 and concede 2.5. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tukums II | 1.3 | 2.8 | 2 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Rēzekne FA | 0.9 | 2.5 | 0 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tukums II sit 11th in 1. Liga (8 points from 10 matches) and Rēzekne FA sit 14th (4 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Tukums II | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 21 | 45 | 12 |
| 11 | Tukums II | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 26 | 8 |
| 14 | Rēzekne FA | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 31 | 4 |
| 14 | Rēzekne FA | 17 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 13 | 48 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tukums II vs Rēzekne FA?
- The Footlab model makes Tukums II the favourite at 62%, against 20% for a draw and 18% for Rēzekne FA.
- Where and when is Tukums II vs Rēzekne FA played?
- Tukums II vs Rēzekne FA is played on September 19, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Tukuma mākslīgā laukumā stadions, in the 1. Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.