Sur vs Al-Shabab: prediction and stats
Professional LeagueRegular Season - 1Kick-off on August 31, 2026 at 04:15 PM (UTC)Sur Sports Complex, Sur
The Footlab model makes Al-Shabab the favourite at 48%, against 24% for a draw and 28% for Sur. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sur vs Al-Shabab?
Al-Shabab starts as the favourite with a 111-point Elo edge (1,579 vs 1,468).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sur have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Al-Shabab have 9, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | Sohar(home) | 3-3 | Professional League |
| May 18, 2026 | Oman Club(away) | 3-2 | Professional League |
| May 12, 2026 | Al-Khabourah(home) | 2-1 | Professional League |
| May 8, 2026 | Al-Shabab(home) | 2-0 | Professional League |
| May 3, 2026 | Ibri(away) | 2-1 | Professional League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | Al-Nahda(away) | 3-2 | Professional League |
| May 18, 2026 | Al Seeb(home) | 0-0 | Professional League |
| May 14, 2026 | Dhofar(away) | 0-2 | Professional League |
| May 8, 2026 | Sur(away) | 0-2 | Professional League |
| May 4, 2026 | Al-Rustaq(home) | 1-0 | Professional League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Sur win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Al-Shabab win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2026 | Sur 2-0 Al-Shabab | Professional League |
| Jan 7, 2026 | Al-Shabab 3-1 Sur | Professional League |
| May 3, 2025 | Al-Shabab 3-3 Sur | Professional League |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Sur 1-0 Al-Shabab | Professional League |
| Apr 28, 2024 | Al-Shabab 1-2 Sur | Professional League |
| Oct 15, 2023 | Sur 2-2 Al-Shabab | Professional League |
How many goals should we expect?
Sur score 1.4 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Al-Shabab score 2.2 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sur | 1.4 | 1.1 | 4 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
| Al-Shabab | 2.2 | 1.3 | 6 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sur sit 8th in Professional League (32 points from 26 matches) and Al-Shabab sit 2nd (54 points from 26 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Al-Shabab | 26 | 17 | 3 | 6 | 51 | 27 | 54 |
| 8 | Sur | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 34 | 37 | 32 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sur vs Al-Shabab?
- The Footlab model makes Al-Shabab the favourite at 48%, against 24% for a draw and 28% for Sur.
- Where and when is Sur vs Al-Shabab played?
- Sur vs Al-Shabab is played on August 31, 2026 at 04:15 PM (UTC) at Sur Sports Complex, in the Professional League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.