Swansea University vs Treowen Stars: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 12Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Sketty Lane, Swansea
The Footlab model makes Swansea University the favourite at 67%, against 17% for a draw and 16% for Treowen Stars. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Swansea University vs Treowen Stars?
A very open match: only 3 Elo points separate Swansea University (1,557) and Treowen Stars (1,559).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Swansea University have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Treowen Stars have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Caerau (Ely)(away) | 5-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | llanelli AFC(home) | 3-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Baglan Dragons(away) | 3-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Llantwit Major(away) | 3-0 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Trefelin(home) | 1-6 | Welsh Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Carmarthen Town(away) | 4-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Caerphilly Athletic(home) | 3-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town(away) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(home) | 2-3 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Carmarthen Town(home) | 4-1 | FAW Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Swansea University score 1.9 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Treowen Stars score 2.0 and concede 2.2. The model gives a 77% probability of over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea University | 1.9 | 1.6 | 6 | 6/15 | 11/15 |
| Treowen Stars | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Swansea University sit 1st in FAW Championship (12 points from 4 matches) and Treowen Stars sit 3rd (9 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea University | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 12 |
| 3 | Treowen Stars | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 9 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Swansea University vs Treowen Stars?
- The Footlab model makes Swansea University the favourite at 67%, against 17% for a draw and 16% for Treowen Stars.
- Where and when is Swansea University vs Treowen Stars played?
- Swansea University vs Treowen Stars is played on October 24, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Sketty Lane, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 77% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 23, 2026Carmarthen TownvsCaerphilly Athletic
- Oct 23, 2026Newport CityvsPontypridd Town
- Oct 23, 2026llanelli AFCvsAfan Lido
- Oct 23, 2026Caerau (Ely)vsLlantwit Major
- Oct 24, 2026Baglan DragonsvsAberystwyth Town
- Oct 24, 2026Pontardawe TownvsYnyshir Albions
- Oct 24, 2026Trethomas BluebirdsvsCardiff Draconians