Trethomas Bluebirds vs Cardiff Draconians: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 12Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)CCB Centre for Sporting Excellence, Ystrad Mynach, Caerphilly
The Footlab model makes Trethomas Bluebirds the favourite at 41%, against 22% for a draw and 36% for Cardiff Draconians. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Trethomas Bluebirds vs Cardiff Draconians?
A very open match: only 36 Elo points separate Trethomas Bluebirds (1,512) and Cardiff Draconians (1,549).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Trethomas Bluebirds have 2 wins, 6 draws and 7 defeats; Cardiff Draconians have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(away) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Caerau (Ely)(home) | 2-4 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | llanelli AFC(away) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Baglan Dragons(home) | 0-0 | FAW Championship |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Barry Town(away) | 1-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | llanelli AFC(home) | 4-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(home) | 1-4 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Caerphilly Athletic(away) | 0-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Ynyshir Albions(away) | 0-1 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Afan Lido(home) | 4-1 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Trethomas Bluebirds win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Cardiff Draconians win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2026 | Trethomas Bluebirds 4-4 Cardiff Draconians | FAW Championship |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Cardiff Draconians 3-0 Trethomas Bluebirds | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Trethomas Bluebirds vs Cardiff Draconians on Apr 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Trethomas Bluebirds score 1.5 and concede 2.3 goals per match over their last 15; Cardiff Draconians score 1.7 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 72% probability of over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trethomas Bluebirds | 1.5 | 2.3 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Cardiff Draconians | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Trethomas Bluebirds sit 14th in FAW Championship (2 points from 4 matches) and Cardiff Draconians sit 10th (4 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
| 14 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Trethomas Bluebirds vs Cardiff Draconians?
- The Footlab model makes Trethomas Bluebirds the favourite at 41%, against 22% for a draw and 36% for Cardiff Draconians.
- Where and when is Trethomas Bluebirds vs Cardiff Draconians played?
- Trethomas Bluebirds vs Cardiff Draconians is played on October 24, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at CCB Centre for Sporting Excellence, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.