Baglan Dragons vs Aberystwyth Town: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 12Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Evans Bevans Playing Fields Q, Port Talbot
The Footlab model makes Aberystwyth Town the favourite at 50%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for Baglan Dragons. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Baglan Dragons vs Aberystwyth Town?
Aberystwyth Town starts as the favourite with a 105-point Elo edge (1,577 vs 1,472).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Baglan Dragons have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Aberystwyth Town have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Newport City(away) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Llantwit Major(away) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Swansea University(home) | 0-3 | FAW Championship |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Trethomas Bluebirds(away) | 0-0 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Trethomas Bluebirds(home) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Llantwit Major(home) | 5-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Treowen Stars(home) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Afan Lido(away) | 5-2 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Ynyshir Albions(away) | 0-0 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Cwmbran Celtic(away) | 1-3 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Baglan Dragons win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Aberystwyth Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2026 | Baglan Dragons 0-1 Aberystwyth Town | FAW Championship |
| Aug 9, 2025 | Aberystwyth Town 2-1 Baglan Dragons | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Baglan Dragons vs Aberystwyth Town on Feb 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Baglan Dragons score 0.5 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Aberystwyth Town score 1.5 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baglan Dragons | 0.5 | 2.1 | 4 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
| Aberystwyth Town | 1.5 | 1.6 | 4 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Baglan Dragons sit 5th in FAW Championship (7 points from 4 matches) and Aberystwyth Town sit 6th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Baglan Dragons | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Baglan Dragons vs Aberystwyth Town?
- The Footlab model makes Aberystwyth Town the favourite at 50%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for Baglan Dragons.
- Where and when is Baglan Dragons vs Aberystwyth Town played?
- Baglan Dragons vs Aberystwyth Town is played on October 24, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Evans Bevans Playing Fields Q, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 23, 2026Carmarthen TownvsCaerphilly Athletic
- Oct 23, 2026Newport CityvsPontypridd Town
- Oct 23, 2026llanelli AFCvsAfan Lido
- Oct 23, 2026Caerau (Ely)vsLlantwit Major
- Oct 24, 2026Trethomas BluebirdsvsCardiff Draconians
- Oct 24, 2026Swansea UniversityvsTreowen Stars
- Oct 24, 2026Pontardawe TownvsYnyshir Albions