Baglan Dragons vs Aberystwyth Town: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 12Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Evans Bevans Playing Fields Q, Port Talbot
The Footlab AI model makes Aberystwyth Town the favourite at 56%, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Baglan Dragons. The most likely score is 1-1. If Aberystwyth Town wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Baglan Dragons vs Aberystwyth Town?
Aberystwyth Town starts as the favourite with a 123-point Elo edge (1,670 vs 1,547).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Baglan Dragons vs Aberystwyth Town
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Baglan Dragons
Not enough data to predict the Baglan Dragons lineup.
Aberystwyth Town
Not enough data to predict the Aberystwyth Town lineup.
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 12:11 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Baglan Dragons have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Aberystwyth Town have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(home) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 2, 2026 | llanelli AFC(away) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Carmarthen Town(home) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians(away) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Afan Lido(home) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Caerau (Ely)(home) | 0-1 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(away) | 3-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Swansea University(home) | 0-0 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Caerphilly Athletic(away) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 31, 2026 | llanelli AFC(home) | 4-0 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Baglan Dragons wins, 0 draws, 2 Aberystwyth Town wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2026 | Baglan Dragons 0-1 Aberystwyth Town | FAW Championship |
| Aug 9, 2025 | Aberystwyth Town 2-1 Baglan Dragons | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Baglan Dragons vs Aberystwyth Town on Feb 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Baglan Dragons score 0.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Aberystwyth Town score 1.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baglan Dragons | 0.9 | 1.5 | 4 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Aberystwyth Town | 1.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Baglan Dragons sit 5th in FAW Championship (17 points from 11 matches) and Aberystwyth Town sit 3rd (19 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Aberystwyth Town | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 9 | 19 |
| 5 | Baglan Dragons | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 17 |
A question about Baglan Dragons vs Aberystwyth Town?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Baglan Dragons vs Aberystwyth Town?
- The Footlab AI model makes Aberystwyth Town the favourite at 56%, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Baglan Dragons.
- Where and when is Baglan Dragons vs Aberystwyth Town played?
- Baglan Dragons vs Aberystwyth Town is played on October 24, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Evans Bevans Playing Fields Q, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 23, 2026Carmarthen TownvsCaerphilly Athletic
- Oct 23, 2026Newport CityvsPontypridd Town
- Oct 23, 2026llanelli AFCvsAfan Lido
- Oct 23, 2026Caerau (Ely)vsLlantwit Major
- Oct 24, 2026Trethomas BluebirdsvsCardiff Draconians
- Oct 24, 2026Swansea UniversityvsTreowen Stars
- Oct 24, 2026Pontardawe TownvsYnyshir Albions