Swansea vs Norwich: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea
The Footlab model makes Swansea the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Norwich. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Swansea vs Norwich?
A very open match: only 12 Elo points separate Swansea (1,922) and Norwich (1,910).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Swansea have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Norwich have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sheffield Utd(home) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Stoke City(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Birmingham(home) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Leganes(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Merthyr Town(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Millwall(away) | 0-3 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | West Brom(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Milton Keynes Dons(home) | 4-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Cambridge United(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Osasuna(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Swansea win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Norwich win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Norwich 1-1 Swansea | Championship |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Swansea 2-1 Norwich | Championship |
| Jan 25, 2025 | Norwich 5-1 Swansea | Championship |
| Sep 14, 2024 | Swansea 1-0 Norwich | Championship |
| Apr 27, 2024 | Norwich 2-2 Swansea | Championship |
| Oct 4, 2023 | Swansea 2-1 Norwich | Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Swansea score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Norwich score 1.4 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Norwich | 1.4 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Swansea sit 9th in Championship (4 points from 2 matches) and Norwich sit 23rd (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Swansea | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 23 | Norwich | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Swansea vs Norwich?
- The Footlab model makes Swansea the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Norwich.
- Where and when is Swansea vs Norwich played?
- Swansea vs Norwich is played on October 10, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Swansea.com Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.