Derby vs Wrexham: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Pride Park Stadium, Derby
The Footlab AI model makes Derby the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Wrexham. The most likely score is 1-1. If Derby wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.9% of the 1,758 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Derby vs Wrexham?
A very open match: only 97 Elo points separate Derby (1,926) and Wrexham (2,023).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Derby vs Wrexham
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Derby
4-2-3-1- 9C. Morris
- 11S. Szmodics
- 8B. Clark
- 20A. Mowatt
- 26R. Hedges
- 4D. Ozoh
- 18C. Taylor
- 6S. Langås
- 28D. Sanderson
- 23J. Ward
- 31J. Vickers
Known absences
C. ForsythOut · Knee injury
D. MurkinOut · Hamstring injury
F. BilbijaOut · Back injury
H. MeisterOut · Concussion
J. Widell ZetterströmOut · Knee injury- M. ClarkeOut · Calf injury
P. AgyemangOut · Achilles injury
Wrexham
3-4-2-1- 19K. Moore
- 8B. Whiteman
- 3J. Ekomié
- 17C. O'Hare
- 10J. Windass
- 12I. Kaboré
- 27L. O'Brien
- 2C. Doyle
- 5D. Hyam
- 26Z. Vyner
- 22A. Patterson
Known absences
- G. ThomasonOut · Thigh injury
L. CacaceOut · Calf injury
M. CleworthOut · Muscle injury- N. BroadheadOut · Thigh injury
- O. RathboneOut · Ankle injury
- S. RevanOut · Hamstring injury
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 01:52 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Derby have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Wrexham have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Burnley(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Birmingham(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Sep 9, 2026 | West Brom(home) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Sep 5, 2026 | West Ham(away) | 0-3 | Championship |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Portsmouth(away) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Southampton(home) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Sep 11, 2026 | West Ham(away) | 0-6 | Championship |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Burnley(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Swansea(away) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Millwall(away) | 3-0 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Derby wins, 1 draw, 1 Wrexham win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2026 | Derby 1-2 Wrexham | Championship |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Wrexham 1-1 Derby | Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Derby score 1.1 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Wrexham score 1.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby | 1.1 | 1.6 | 2 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Wrexham | 1.0 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Derby sit 22nd in Championship (5 points from 8 matches) and Wrexham sit 14th (10 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Wrexham | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 10 |
| 22 | Derby | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 5 |
A question about Derby vs Wrexham?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Derby vs Wrexham?
- The Footlab AI model makes Derby the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Wrexham.
- Where and when is Derby vs Wrexham played?
- Derby vs Wrexham is played on October 10, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Pride Park Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.9% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.