Swindon Town vs Gillingham: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 46Kick-off on May 8, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)The County Ground, Swindon, Wiltshire
The Footlab model makes Swindon Town the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Gillingham. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Swindon Town vs Gillingham?
Swindon Town starts as the favourite with a 141-point Elo edge (1,826 vs 1,685).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Swindon Town have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Gillingham have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cheltenham(home) | 2-1 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Northampton(away) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Cardiff(away) | 2-3 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Forest Green(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Leyton Orient(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Fleetwood Town(away) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Walsall(home) | 0-3 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Luton(home) | 0-3 | League Cup |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Ebbsfleet United(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Millwall(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Swindon Town win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Gillingham win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | Gillingham 0-2 Swindon Town | League Two |
| Jan 1, 2026 | Swindon Town 2-0 Gillingham | League Two |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Gillingham 1-1 Swindon Town | League Two |
| Oct 26, 2024 | Swindon Town 1-1 Gillingham | League Two |
| Feb 13, 2024 | Gillingham 2-2 Swindon Town | League Two |
| Oct 24, 2023 | Swindon Town 0-1 Gillingham | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Gillingham vs Swindon Town on Mar 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Swindon Town score 1.5 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Gillingham score 1.0 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swindon Town | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| Gillingham | 1.0 | 1.6 | 6 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Swindon Town sit 7th in League Two (4 points from 2 matches) and Gillingham sit 21st (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Swindon Town | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 21 | Gillingham | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Swindon Town vs Gillingham?
- The Footlab model makes Swindon Town the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Gillingham.
- Where and when is Swindon Town vs Gillingham played?
- Swindon Town vs Gillingham is played on May 8, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at The County Ground, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.