Toluca vs FC Juarez: prediction and stats
Liga MXApertura - 6Kick-off on August 31, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Nemesio Díez, Toluca de Lerdo
The Footlab model makes Toluca the favourite at 72%, against 17% for a draw and 10% for FC Juarez. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Toluca vs FC Juarez?
Toluca starts as the favourite with a 239-point Elo edge (2,062 vs 1,822).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Toluca have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; FC Juarez have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Club Queretaro(away) | 2-1 | Liga MX |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Atlante FC(away) | 0-0 | Liga MX |
| Aug 13, 2026 | FC Dallas(home) | 3-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Los Angeles FC(home) | 0-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Seattle Sounders(home) | 3-0 | Leagues Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Club America(home) | 1-2 | Liga MX |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Monterrey(away) | 1-6 | Liga MX |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Real Salt Lake(away) | 0-3 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Vancouver Whitecaps(away) | 3-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Minnesota United FC(away) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Toluca win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 FC Juarez win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | Toluca 3-1 FC Juarez | Liga MX |
| Nov 30, 2025 | Toluca 0-0 FC Juarez | Liga MX |
| Nov 27, 2025 | FC Juarez 1-2 Toluca | Liga MX |
| Aug 12, 2025 | FC Juarez 0-2 Toluca | Liga MX |
| Feb 22, 2025 | FC Juarez 0-4 Toluca | Liga MX |
| Jul 14, 2024 | Toluca 3-2 FC Juarez | Liga MX |
How many goals should we expect?
Toluca score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; FC Juarez score 1.2 and concede 2.2. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toluca | 1.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| FC Juarez | 1.2 | 2.2 | 0 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Toluca sit 3rd in Liga MX (6 points from 3 matches) and FC Juarez sit 18th (0 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Toluca | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Toluca | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 10 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Toluca vs FC Juarez?
- The Footlab model makes Toluca the favourite at 72%, against 17% for a draw and 10% for FC Juarez.
- Where and when is Toluca vs FC Juarez played?
- Toluca vs FC Juarez is played on August 31, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Nemesio Díez, in the Liga MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.