Toulouse vs Marseille: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 30Kick-off on May 1, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse
The Footlab AI model makes Marseille the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Toulouse. The most likely score is 1-1. If Marseille wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,422 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Toulouse vs Marseille?
A very open match: only 76 Elo points separate Toulouse (2,008) and Marseille (2,084).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Toulouse vs Marseille
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Toulouse
4-2-3-1- 13J. Russell-Rowe
- 23C. Cásseres
- 8T. Jørgensen
- 37Y. Azizi
- 20C. Tengstedt
- 6A. Vossah
- 12C. Tapé
- 3M. McKenzie
- 22R. Messali
- 5S. Koumbassa
- 16G. Restes
Marseille
4-2-3-1- 9A. Gouiri
- 8H. Abdelli
- 77A. Harit
- 14Igor Paixão
- 7A. Gomes
- 23P. Højbjerg
- 4C. Egan-Riley
- 33Emerson
- 21N. Aguerd
- 22T. Weah
- 12J. de Lange
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 02:08 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Toulouse have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Marseille have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Monaco(away) | 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | PAU(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Le Havre(home) | 3-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Lorient(away) | 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Lille(home) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Estac Troyes(away) | 2-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain(home) | 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Beşiktaş(away) | 1-4 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Rennes(away) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Paris FC(home) | 2-3 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Toulouse wins, 3 draws, 3 Marseille wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | Toulouse 0-1 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| Mar 4, 2026 | Marseille 2-2 Toulouse | Coupe de France |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Marseille 2-2 Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Marseille 3-2 Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 31, 2024 | Toulouse 1-3 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 21, 2024 | Toulouse 2-2 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Toulouse score 1.6 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Marseille score 1.4 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse | 1.6 | 1.9 | 0 | 13/15 | 12/15 |
| Marseille | 1.4 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Toulouse sit 15th in Ligue 1 (6 points from 6 matches) and Marseille sit 13th (6 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 6 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 6 |
A question about Toulouse vs Marseille?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Toulouse vs Marseille?
- The Footlab AI model makes Marseille the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Toulouse.
- Where and when is Toulouse vs Marseille played?
- Toulouse vs Marseille is played on May 1, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadium de Toulouse, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.