Nice vs Marseille: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 31Kick-off on May 8, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Allianz Riviera, Nice
The Footlab model makes Nice the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Marseille. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nice vs Marseille?
Marseille starts as the favourite with a 131-point Elo edge (2,088 vs 1,957).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nice have 3 wins, 9 draws and 3 defeats; Marseille have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lorient(home) | 0-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Hull City(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Cagliari(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Juventus(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Nimes(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Strasbourg(home) | 4-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Athletic Club(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Nimes(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 17, 2026 | Rennes(home) | 3-1 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Nice win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Marseille win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Marseille 1-1 Nice | Ligue 1 |
| Nov 21, 2025 | Nice 1-5 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| Jan 26, 2025 | Nice 2-0 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 14, 2024 | Marseille 2-0 Nice | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 24, 2024 | Marseille 2-2 Nice | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 21, 2023 | Nice 1-0 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Nice score 1.0 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Marseille score 1.6 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nice | 1.0 | 0.7 | 8 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
| Marseille | 1.6 | 1.2 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nice sit 12th in Ligue 1 (1 points from 1 matches) and Marseille sit 1st (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marseille | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Nice | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nice vs Marseille?
- The Footlab model makes Nice the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Marseille.
- Where and when is Nice vs Marseille played?
- Nice vs Marseille is played on May 8, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Allianz Riviera, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.