Monaco vs Lorient: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 30Kick-off on May 1, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stade Louis-II, Monaco
The Footlab AI model makes Monaco the favourite at 58%, against 23% for a draw and 19% for Lorient. The most likely score is 1-1. If Monaco wins, the most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,383 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Monaco vs Lorient?
Monaco starts as the favourite with a 127-point Elo edge (2,142 vs 2,015).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Monaco vs Lorient
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Monaco
4-2-3-1- 11M. Abline
- 8L. Camara
- 6D. Zakaria
- 10A. Golovin
- 37E. Diop
- 7M. Detourbet
- 15E. Dier
- 72Sadibou Sané
- 2Vanderson
- 20Flávio Nazinho
- 1L. Hrádecký
Lorient
3-4-2-1- 42M. Kone
- 17J. Makengo
- 43K. Kouassi
- 8N. Cadiou
- 33G. Bernardeau
- 2A. Georgen
- 10I. Jensen
- 32N. Adjei
- 3M. Talbi
- 20D. Sylla
- 38Y. Mvogo
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 06:04 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Monaco have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Lorient have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Toulouse(home) | 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Lens(home) | 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Strasbourg(away) | 1-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain(away) | 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Marseille(home) | 2-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Paris FC(home) | 1-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Le Mans(away) | 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Toulouse(home) | 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Lens(away) | 1-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Estac Troyes(home) | 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Monaco win, 3 draws, 2 Lorient wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2026 | Monaco 1-3 Lorient | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Lorient 3-1 Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| Mar 17, 2024 | Monaco 2-2 Lorient | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 17, 2023 | Lorient 2-2 Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 16, 2023 | Monaco 3-1 Lorient | Ligue 1 |
| Jan 11, 2023 | Lorient 2-2 Monaco | Ligue 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Monaco score 2.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Lorient score 1.6 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monaco | 2.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Lorient | 1.6 | 1.2 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Monaco sit 1st in Ligue 1 (14 points from 6 matches) and Lorient sit 8th (8 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 14 |
| 8 | Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 8 |
A question about Monaco vs Lorient?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Monaco vs Lorient?
- The Footlab AI model makes Monaco the favourite at 58%, against 23% for a draw and 19% for Lorient.
- Where and when is Monaco vs Lorient played?
- Monaco vs Lorient is played on May 1, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Louis-II, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.