Toulouse vs Nice: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 17Kick-off on January 23, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse
The Footlab AI model makes Toulouse the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Nice. The most likely score is 1-1. If Toulouse wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Toulouse vs Nice?
A very open match: only 15 Elo points separate Toulouse (1,991) and Nice (1,976).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Toulouse vs Nice
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Toulouse
4-2-3-1- 13J. Russell-Rowe
- 23C. Cásseres
- 8T. Jørgensen
- 37Y. Azizi
- 20C. Tengstedt
- 6A. Vossah
- 12C. Tapé
- 3M. McKenzie
- 22R. Messali
- 5S. Koumbassa
- 16G. Restes
Nice
3-4-2-1- 11E. Wahi
- 92J. Clauss
- 39D. Coulibaly
- 28A. Witsel
- 7G. Hein
- 27N. Nkounkou
- 9M. Amoura
- 55Y. Ndayishimiye
- 35X. Mandza Tsiendi
- 5Mohamed Abdelmonem
- 23Y. Diouf
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 01:55 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Toulouse have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Nice have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Monaco(away) | 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | PAU(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Le Havre(home) | 3-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Lorient(away) | 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Lille(home) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Strasbourg(home) | 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Lille(home) | 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Auxerre(away) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Le Mans(home) | 1-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Paris FC(away) | 0-3 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Toulouse wins, 2 draws, 1 Nice win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | Toulouse 5-1 Nice | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Nice 0-1 Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| Feb 2, 2025 | Toulouse 1-1 Nice | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 25, 2024 | Nice 1-1 Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| Mar 3, 2024 | Toulouse 2-1 Nice | Ligue 1 |
| Nov 26, 2023 | Nice 1-0 Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Toulouse score 1.6 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Nice score 1.0 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse | 1.6 | 1.9 | 0 | 13/15 | 12/15 |
| Nice | 1.0 | 1.0 | 6 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Toulouse sit 15th in Ligue 1 (6 points from 6 matches) and Nice sit 9th (8 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 8 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 6 |
A question about Toulouse vs Nice?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Toulouse vs Nice?
- The Footlab AI model makes Toulouse the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Nice.
- Where and when is Toulouse vs Nice played?
- Toulouse vs Nice is played on January 23, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadium de Toulouse, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.