TP Mazembe vs Medeama: prediction and stats
CAF Champions LeagueSemi-finalsKick-off on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stade du TP Mazembe, Lubumbashi
The Footlab model makes TP Mazembe the favourite at 72%, against 21% for a draw and 8% for Medeama. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win TP Mazembe vs Medeama?
TP Mazembe starts as the favourite with a 279-point Elo edge (1,940 vs 1,661).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, TP Mazembe have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Medeama have 8, 1 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 20, 2026 | Céleste(home) | 2-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Don Bosco(away) | 3-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Saint Eloi Lupopo(home) | 0-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Jun 11, 2026 | JSK(home) | 2-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Maniema Union(away) | 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | ASEC Mimosas(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | SOA(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 27, 2026 | Basake Holy Stars(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 24, 2026 | Hearts of Oak(away) | 2-4 | Premier League |
| May 17, 2026 | Heart of Lions(home) | 5-2 | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
TP Mazembe score 1.7 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; Medeama score 2.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TP Mazembe | 1.7 | 0.5 | 11 | 4/15 | 6/15 |
| Medeama | 2.0 | 1.3 | 5 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | TP Mazembe | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for TP Mazembe vs Medeama?
- The Footlab model makes TP Mazembe the favourite at 72%, against 21% for a draw and 8% for Medeama.
- Where and when is TP Mazembe vs Medeama played?
- TP Mazembe vs Medeama is played on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stade du TP Mazembe, in the CAF Champions League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.