Treowen Stars vs Carmarthen Town: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 26Kick-off on March 20, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Treowen Stars the favourite at 41%, against 22% for a draw and 37% for Carmarthen Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Treowen Stars vs Carmarthen Town?
A very open match: only 35 Elo points separate Treowen Stars (1,581) and Carmarthen Town (1,616).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Treowen Stars have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Carmarthen Town have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Carmarthen Town(away) | 4-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Caerphilly Athletic(home) | 3-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town(away) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(home) | 2-3 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Carmarthen Town(home) | 4-1 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Treowen Stars(home) | 2-4 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Afan Lido(home) | 3-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Newport City(away) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Caerau (Ely)(home) | 4-3 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Treowen Stars(away) | 1-4 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 Treowen Stars win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Carmarthen Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Carmarthen Town 2-4 Treowen Stars | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Treowen Stars 4-1 Carmarthen Town | FAW Championship |
| Sep 12, 2025 | Carmarthen Town 1-1 Treowen Stars | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Carmarthen Town vs Treowen Stars on Aug 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Treowen Stars score 2.0 and concede 2.2 goals per match over their last 15; Carmarthen Town score 2.5 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 76% probability of over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Treowen Stars | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
| Carmarthen Town | 2.5 | 2.0 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Treowen Stars sit 3rd in FAW Championship (9 points from 4 matches) and Carmarthen Town sit 4th (9 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Treowen Stars | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 9 |
| 4 | Carmarthen Town | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 9 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Treowen Stars vs Carmarthen Town?
- The Footlab model makes Treowen Stars the favourite at 41%, against 22% for a draw and 37% for Carmarthen Town.
- Where and when is Treowen Stars vs Carmarthen Town played?
- Treowen Stars vs Carmarthen Town is played on March 20, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC), in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 76% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
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- Mar 19, 2027Baglan DragonsvsNewport City
- Mar 19, 2027llanelli AFCvsCaerphilly Athletic
- Mar 20, 2027Trethomas BluebirdsvsSwansea University
- Mar 20, 2027Llantwit MajorvsYnyshir Albions
- Mar 20, 2027Pontardawe TownvsCardiff Draconians
- Mar 20, 2027Aberystwyth TownvsAfan Lido