Where and when is Pontypridd Town vs Caerau (Ely) played?

Pontypridd Town vs Caerau (Ely) is played on March 19, 2027 at 07:30 PM (UTC) at USW Sports Park, in the FAW Championship.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 73% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Pontypridd Town vs Caerau (Ely): prediction and stats

FAW ChampionshipSouth - 26Kick-off on March 19, 2027 at 07:30 PM (UTC)USW Sports Park, Treforest, Pontypridd

Pontypridd Town

Caerau (Ely)

The Footlab model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 43%, against 22% for a draw and 35% for Pontypridd Town. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Pontypridd Town vs Caerau (Ely)?

A very open match: only 56 Elo points separate Pontypridd Town (1,599) and Caerau (Ely) (1,654).

Pontypridd Town win35 %

Draw22 %

Caerau (Ely) win43 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pontypridd Town have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Caerau (Ely) have 6, 5 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Pontypridd Town
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Trethomas Bluebirds(home)	2-1	FAW Championship
Aug 15, 2026	Cardiff Draconians(away)	4-1	FAW Championship
Aug 7, 2026	Pontardawe Town(home)	3-2	FAW Championship
Aug 1, 2026	Treowen Stars(away)	3-2	FAW Championship
Apr 18, 2026	Caerau (Ely)(home)	0-0	FAW Championship

Caerau (Ely)
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Swansea University(home)	1-5	FAW Championship
Aug 14, 2026	Trethomas Bluebirds(away)	4-2	FAW Championship
Aug 7, 2026	Ynyshir Albions(home)	1-1	FAW Championship
Aug 1, 2026	Carmarthen Town(away)	3-4	FAW Championship
Jul 25, 2026	Barnstaple Town(home)	4-4	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Pontypridd Town win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Caerau (Ely) win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Apr 18, 2026	Pontypridd Town 0-0 Caerau (Ely)	FAW Championship
Aug 25, 2025	Caerau (Ely) 2-0 Pontypridd Town	FAW Championship
Feb 4, 2025	Caerau (Ely) 0-1 Pontypridd Town	FAW Championship
Aug 23, 2024	Pontypridd Town 1-0 Caerau (Ely)	FAW Championship
Jan 25, 2020	Pontypridd Town 4-4 Caerau (Ely)	FAW Championship
Oct 19, 2019	Pontypridd Town 3-1 Caerau (Ely)	Welsh Cup

Last archived meeting: Pontypridd Town vs Caerau (Ely) on Apr 18, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Pontypridd Town score 2.1 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Caerau (Ely) score 2.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 73% probability of over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Pontypridd Town	2.1	1.6	4	10/15	11/15
Caerau (Ely)	2.1	1.5	6	8/15	8/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Pontypridd Town sit 2nd in FAW Championship (12 points from 4 matches) and Caerau (Ely) sit 11th (4 points from 4 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
2	Pontypridd Town	4	4	0	0	12	6	12
11	Caerau (Ely)	4	1	1	2	9	12	4

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Pontypridd Town vs Caerau (Ely)?: The Footlab model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 43%, against 22% for a draw and 35% for Pontypridd Town.
Where and when is Pontypridd Town vs Caerau (Ely) played?: Pontypridd Town vs Caerau (Ely) is played on March 19, 2027 at 07:30 PM (UTC) at USW Sports Park, in the FAW Championship.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 73% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.