Pontypridd Town vs Caerau (Ely): prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 26Kick-off on March 19, 2027 at 07:30 PM (UTC)USW Sports Park, Treforest, Pontypridd
The Footlab AI model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 46%, against 22% for a draw and 32% for Pontypridd Town. The most likely score is 1-1. If Caerau (Ely) wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,440 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pontypridd Town vs Caerau (Ely)?
A very open match: only 93 Elo points separate Pontypridd Town (1,648) and Caerau (Ely) (1,741).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Pontypridd Town vs Caerau (Ely)
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Pontypridd Town
Not enough data to predict the Pontypridd Town lineup.
Caerau (Ely)
Not enough data to predict the Caerau (Ely) lineup.
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 11:42 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pontypridd Town have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Caerau (Ely) have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Baglan Dragons(away) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Llantwit Major(home) | 4-1 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town(home) | 1-3 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Caerphilly Athletic(away) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Afan Lido(home) | 0-1 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town(away) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Afan Lido(home) | 2-0 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians(away) | 3-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 11, 2026 | llanelli AFC(home) | 3-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Treowen Stars(home) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Pontypridd Town wins, 2 draws, 1 Caerau (Ely) win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Pontypridd Town 0-0 Caerau (Ely) | FAW Championship |
| Aug 25, 2025 | Caerau (Ely) 2-0 Pontypridd Town | FAW Championship |
| Feb 4, 2025 | Caerau (Ely) 0-1 Pontypridd Town | FAW Championship |
| Aug 23, 2024 | Pontypridd Town 1-0 Caerau (Ely) | FAW Championship |
| Jan 25, 2020 | Pontypridd Town 4-4 Caerau (Ely) | FAW Championship |
| Oct 19, 2019 | Pontypridd Town 3-1 Caerau (Ely) | Welsh Cup |
Last archived meeting: Pontypridd Town vs Caerau (Ely) on Apr 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Pontypridd Town score 2.0 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Caerau (Ely) score 2.1 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 74% probability of over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pontypridd Town | 2.0 | 1.7 | 2 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
| Caerau (Ely) | 2.1 | 1.8 | 4 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Pontypridd Town sit 2nd in FAW Championship (20 points from 10 matches) and Caerau (Ely) sit 4th (19 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Pontypridd Town | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 17 | 20 |
| 4 | Caerau (Ely) | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 18 | 19 |
A question about Pontypridd Town vs Caerau (Ely)?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pontypridd Town vs Caerau (Ely)?
- The Footlab AI model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 46%, against 22% for a draw and 32% for Pontypridd Town.
- Where and when is Pontypridd Town vs Caerau (Ely) played?
- Pontypridd Town vs Caerau (Ely) is played on March 19, 2027 at 07:30 PM (UTC) at USW Sports Park, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 74% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Mar 19, 2027llanelli AFCvsCaerphilly Athletic
- Mar 19, 2027Baglan DragonsvsNewport City
- Mar 20, 2027Llantwit MajorvsYnyshir Albions
- Mar 20, 2027Trethomas BluebirdsvsSwansea University
- Mar 20, 2027Pontardawe TownvsCardiff Draconians
- Mar 20, 2027Treowen StarsvsCarmarthen Town
- Mar 20, 2027Aberystwyth TownvsAfan Lido